conversation w/loc

this is a chat log w/loc about a interesting hand i played at 1/2nl live

ocproto (6:20:22 PM): yo
Loc2K (6:20:27 PM): yo
ocproto (6:20:59 PM): jus woke up after finishing a 20hr live session
Loc2K (6:21:05 PM): how did that go
ocproto (6:21:18 PM): i increased my networth by 20%
Loc2K (6:21:24 PM): haha nice
Loc2K (6:21:29 PM): so you won 100 bucks?
Loc2K (6:21:31 PM): lol
ocproto (6:21:36 PM): 120
Loc2K (6:21:39 PM): haha
ocproto (6:21:45 PM): -food=100 net
Loc2K (6:22:00 PM): i'm playing live 200nl tomorrow
Loc2K (6:22:08 PM): only planning on bringing ~250 though
ocproto (6:22:11 PM): how d it go last time?
Loc2K (6:22:17 PM): didn't go last time
Loc2K (6:22:22 PM): postponed
ocproto (6:22:28 PM): i bring like 500
Loc2K (6:22:29 PM): i'm planning on shortstacking
Loc2K (6:22:47 PM): probably 40, 40, 40, 130
Loc2K (6:22:50 PM): so i have 4 shots
ocproto (6:23:28 PM): did i tell u
ocproto (6:23:37 PM): im officially a 0.73 ptbb winner over 13k hands
Loc2K (6:23:44 PM): haha nice
ocproto (6:23:51 PM): +10 buyins in last 1000 hands
Loc2K (6:23:55 PM): i'm up 100 this month finally
Loc2K (6:24:00 PM): now i can move back up
ocproto (6:24:32 PM): so ru planning on doing poker for career?
Loc2K (6:24:36 PM): actually it depends on how my live session goes
Loc2K (6:24:39 PM): yes
ocproto (6:24:49 PM): u kno after i finsih my eng deg
ocproto (6:25:02 PM): im kind of tempted to go into hospital technician work
ocproto (6:25:07 PM): xray or respiratory tech
ocproto (6:25:17 PM): base bay should be like 30 or 35 /hr
ocproto (6:25:25 PM): offer flexible scheduling,
ocproto (6:25:30 PM): do poker on the side
Loc2K (6:25:50 PM): that's pretty decent
ocproto (6:26:27 PM): any shift over 8hrs is over time, holidays r like 2x pay
ocproto (6:26:36 PM): u shud check it out if ur interested
Loc2K (6:28:02 PM): working sucks
Loc2K (6:28:03 PM): haha
Loc2K (9:18:30 PM): http://www.pokerhand.org/?4125927
Loc2K (9:18:37 PM): look at the results
ocproto (9:20:44 PM): coolers
ocproto (1:55:59 AM): i got a live hand
ocproto (1:57:04 AM): 1/2nl my image is TAG, villain is typical tight passive predictable not really capable of huge bluffs
ocproto (1:57:20 AM): BB: $360 (villain)
UTG: $300
Hero:$500 is UTG +1 w/96cc

Preflop: UTG limps, hero raises to 8, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop ($22) AcQcTd
BB checks, UTG checks, hero bets 16
BB check/raises to 40, utg folds Hero calls
(I ask how much he has behind and think about it before I call)

Turn($100)AcQcTd4c
Bb bets $40,
ocproto (1:57:24 AM): ?
Loc2K (1:58:18 AM): my move is fold pf
Loc2K (1:58:48 AM): but since you made a hand
Loc2K (1:58:53 AM): flop play is fine
Loc2K (1:59:11 AM): you have to raise the turn
Loc2K (1:59:20 AM): there is no choice really
Loc2K (1:59:33 AM): i would just shove
Loc2K (1:59:41 AM): if the river comes a club, you're screwed
Loc2K (1:59:47 AM): furthermore, if it pairs you're screwed
Loc2K (2:00:28 AM): there are 8 remaining clubs and ~9 non-club pairing cards
Loc2K (2:00:47 AM): of which probably 80-90% are bad for your hand
Loc2K (2:01:57 AM): shove turn
Loc2K (2:02:04 AM): if he calls you're likely 3.5:1 favorite
Loc2K (2:06:25 AM): lemme think about stacks
Loc2K (2:06:31 AM): he contributed 88 so far
Loc2K (2:06:38 AM): 272 behind
ocproto (2:06:41 AM): yup
ocproto (2:06:46 AM): 130bbs
ocproto (2:06:55 AM): my goal is to make my flush
ocproto (2:07:10 AM): but im not sure if its strong enuf to play for stacks
ocproto (2:07:30 AM): im 100 percent sure he is not c/r with a naked flush draw
ocproto (2:07:38 AM): he might have KJcc
Loc2K (2:07:39 AM): well the c/r is not a flush
Loc2K (2:07:40 AM): for sure
Loc2K (2:07:50 AM): it's a set or two pair or a made straight
Loc2K (2:08:00 AM): you are way ahead on the turn
ocproto (2:08:00 AM): set or straight
ocproto (2:08:02 AM): not even 2 pair
ocproto (2:08:14 AM): live has extremely narrow ranges
Loc2K (2:08:54 AM): you are awkwardly deep
Loc2K (2:09:04 AM): it's shallow enough to where i would still shove
ocproto (2:09:14 AM): yeah i think i shud shove too
Loc2K (2:09:22 AM): only bc the alternatives are kind of bad
ocproto (2:09:43 AM): can we raise and fold to a shove?
Loc2K (2:09:47 AM): if he is not folding to a shove, he's not folding to a raise
ocproto (2:10:08 AM): he might if he has a set
Loc2K (2:10:08 AM): and if you raise and he flats, you have a tough choice on the river 1/3 of the time
Loc2K (2:10:29 AM): i would just get it in
Loc2K (2:10:34 AM): if he has a higher flush, fuck me
Loc2K (2:10:51 AM): the thing is, if you shove... your hand is pretty face up as a flush
ocproto (2:10:52 AM): yeah strong chance of flopped straight
ocproto (2:10:56 AM): exactly
ocproto (2:11:07 AM): honestly iw as hoping to shove the river
ocproto (2:11:13 AM): i ended up flatting turn
Loc2K (2:11:14 AM): i can see calling here being okay...
Loc2K (2:11:21 AM): because of stack depth
Loc2K (2:11:40 AM): but i still like a shove
Loc2K (2:12:00 AM): call turn and fold river is inferior to shoving and having him fold
Loc2K (2:12:09 AM): can't be too greedy and expect him to call 100% of the time
Loc2K (2:12:17 AM): just shove it in while you're ahead
ocproto (2:12:29 AM): u dont like flatting
ocproto (2:12:34 AM): and shoving a non pair no club
Loc2K (2:12:46 AM): i think flatting is okay but shoving is better
ocproto (2:12:56 AM): no i meant im shoving river
ocproto (2:12:57 AM): instead
Loc2K (2:13:06 AM): that's bad
ocproto (2:13:12 AM): cuz i put his range mostly on sets and straight
Loc2K (2:13:16 AM): i mean it's not THAT bad
ocproto (2:13:19 AM): only possible flush is KJcc
ocproto (2:13:22 AM): the nuts
Loc2K (2:13:24 AM): but 1/3 of the time a crap card comes
ocproto (2:13:35 AM): its not 1/3
Loc2K (2:13:40 AM): i would flat if it were slightly deeper
ocproto (2:13:41 AM): 1/5
ocproto (2:13:47 AM): oh wait
ocproto (2:13:52 AM): the pairing
ocproto (2:13:53 AM): ur right
ocproto (2:14:07 AM): shit
ocproto (2:14:11 AM): i didnt think about all that
ocproto (2:14:20 AM): i definitely should have shoved
Loc2K (2:14:27 AM): yeah
ocproto (2:14:31 AM): god i hate
ocproto (2:14:37 AM): missing value
Loc2K (2:14:40 AM): 50-100bb deeper and i'm flatting
ocproto (2:14:50 AM): so i flat the turn
Loc2K (2:14:59 AM): just bc when you shove the turn that deep he is never calling w/worse
ocproto (2:15:09 AM): river comes a 6 of clubs
Loc2K (2:15:24 AM): err you have the 6c
Loc2K (2:15:26 AM): make it 7c
Loc2K (2:15:27 AM): lol
ocproto (2:15:29 AM): yea
ocproto (2:15:55 AM): river ($180) he insta bets 40
ocproto (2:16:09 AM): now in previous hands where he had nut flush in multiway pot
ocproto (2:16:22 AM): he'll lead pretty small and flat call a check raise on the turn
ocproto (2:16:30 AM): to get someone behind him to call
Loc2K (2:16:30 AM): actually
ocproto (2:16:40 AM): and lead like 20 into 120 pot on river
Loc2K (2:16:46 AM): we are wrong about a club being that bad
Loc2K (2:16:57 AM): if i flat the turn i am instacalling a bet on the river that's smaller than pot
Loc2K (2:17:07 AM): the reason is if he has a set
Loc2K (2:17:12 AM): the only set that contains a club is tt
ocproto (2:17:20 AM): yea i called his bet
Loc2K (2:17:26 AM): how did that work out
ocproto (2:17:31 AM): i won
ocproto (2:17:35 AM): he had QQ
ocproto (2:17:37 AM): set
Loc2K (2:17:43 AM): yeah see
Loc2K (2:17:48 AM): every other set on that board
Loc2K (2:17:51 AM): does not have a club
ocproto (2:17:57 AM): still i was paranoid he had KJ
ocproto (2:17:59 AM): with 1 club
Loc2K (2:18:04 AM): so flatting there is not bad at all
ocproto (2:18:18 AM): we got to count combos of sets vs straights
ocproto (2:18:53 AM): he can only possibly have QQ or TT or a straight
ocproto (2:18:57 AM): to check raise
Loc2K (2:19:13 AM): well if he bets pot you only have to win 33% of the time
Loc2K (2:19:58 AM): you beat sets: aa,qq,non-club tt, 44
Loc2K (2:20:36 AM): 3+3+1+3
Loc2K (2:20:39 AM): =10
ocproto (2:21:06 AM): no Aa
ocproto (2:21:12 AM): he would reraise preflop
Loc2K (2:21:17 AM): he didn't w/qq
ocproto (2:21:25 AM): cuz we were deep i assume
Loc2K (2:21:25 AM): i put aa in range too
Loc2K (2:21:43 AM): 8 combos of kj w/one club
Loc2K (2:21:49 AM): 2 of tt with one club
ocproto (2:21:51 AM): how d u do that
ocproto (2:21:57 AM): 8 combos of KJ w/1club?
Loc2K (2:22:02 AM): 1x4 + 1x4
Loc2K (2:22:11 AM): take the king of clubs, match it with all four jacks
Loc2K (2:22:16 AM): take the jack of clubs, match it with all four kings
Loc2K (2:22:27 AM): so that's 10 combos too
Loc2K (2:22:31 AM): you win 50% of the time
Loc2K (2:22:35 AM): and you only need to win 33%
Loc2K (2:22:45 AM): so if he bets pot, you call
ocproto (2:22:47 AM): shud be 7 right?
Loc2K (2:22:55 AM): 7?
ocproto (2:22:55 AM): 7 combos of KJ w/1 club
Loc2K (2:23:02 AM): why 7
ocproto (2:23:07 AM): r u counting KJcc twice?
Loc2K (2:23:19 AM): you're right
Loc2K (2:23:20 AM): my bad
Loc2K (2:23:27 AM): good observation
ocproto (2:23:41 AM): id say also discount the AA too
ocproto (2:23:49 AM): give it 2 combos of AA
Loc2K (2:23:53 AM): so you win 10/19
Loc2K (2:24:01 AM): =52.6%
Loc2K (2:24:15 AM): it really doesn't matter, take out aa and you still > 33%
Loc2K (2:24:27 AM): 7/17 = 41%
Loc2K (2:24:31 AM): oops
Loc2K (2:24:42 AM): 7/16 = 43.8%
Loc2K (2:25:05 AM): easy call
ocproto (2:25:09 AM): yes
Loc2K (2:25:45 AM): however, if you are a little more shallow
Loc2K (2:25:49 AM): i like a turn shove
Loc2K (2:26:06 AM): he's usually not betting the river on a 4flush board unless he's insane
ocproto (2:26:07 AM): as played i completely agree
ocproto (2:26:18 AM): river is a snap call
ocproto (2:26:30 AM): especially for less than 1/2pot
Loc2K (2:26:45 AM): the 40 looks like a blocking bet
Loc2K (2:26:53 AM): but you can't raise for value obv
ocproto (2:27:07 AM): but we're also assuming villain bets river w/his entire range
ocproto (2:27:15 AM): say he 1/2pots it
ocproto (2:27:19 AM): bets $100
ocproto (2:27:22 AM): into 180 on river
ocproto (2:27:40 AM): is he really betting his entire range there?
Loc2K (2:28:10 AM): some percentage of the time he's going to turn his set into a bluff thinking you called down w/an ace
Loc2K (2:28:21 AM): you have to call
ocproto (2:31:13 AM): so whats ur conclusion on the turn play?
ocproto (2:31:15 AM): call or shove
Loc2K (2:33:32 AM): if the depth doesn't bother you, shove
Loc2K (2:33:36 AM): otherwise call is perfectly fine
Loc2K (2:33:47 AM): after analysis i lean towards calling
Loc2K (2:34:13 AM): the answer is a matter of depth
ocproto (2:36:34 AM): yea cuz if i shove turn it's 2xpot
Loc2K (2:36:57 AM): your reason for shoving the turn is not to protect your hand, though
ocproto (2:37:04 AM): no?
Loc2K (2:37:08 AM): it's so that you don't lose action on a club river
Loc2K (2:37:23 AM): remember that a club isn't THAT bad for us
Loc2K (2:37:29 AM): in that we still have the best hand a lot of hte time
ocproto (2:37:31 AM): hmm yea
Loc2K (2:37:39 AM): it is bad in the sense that we won't get any additional value out of it
ocproto (2:37:56 AM): river club turns us into a calling station
ocproto (2:38:25 AM): in addition to killing our action
ocproto (2:38:29 AM): hes still got 10 outs w/his set
Loc2K (2:38:46 AM): well yeah but on paired rivers we don't care about losing action
Loc2K (2:39:10 AM): it's deep enough to where we can let him peel with 3.5:1
ocproto (2:39:14 AM): no i meant he has set so thats more reason to shove turn
Loc2K (2:39:31 AM): well he hits 1/4.5 times
ocproto (2:39:32 AM): yea ur right
ocproto (2:39:39 AM): hes not exactly getting odds
ocproto (2:40:01 AM): same odds if he has KJ w/ a club
ocproto (2:41:44 AM): so if we'renot that afraid of rivers
ocproto (2:41:51 AM): y not make a value raise on turn
ocproto (2:42:12 AM): raise him an additional 1/2 of his stack
Loc2K (2:42:24 AM): you make an excellent point
Loc2K (2:42:28 AM): i was jus thinking about that
Loc2K (2:42:36 AM): but...
Loc2K (2:42:51 AM): you know what all three options are pretty attractive
Loc2K (2:42:58 AM): the sucky part about raising the turn
Loc2K (2:43:05 AM): is when he flats and the board pairs the river
Loc2K (2:43:08 AM): you just lost your raise
ocproto (2:43:12 AM): fuck it
Loc2K (2:43:32 AM): whereas if you flat, as you did, and he leads out of position
Loc2K (2:43:35 AM): you pick up a bet
Loc2K (2:43:42 AM): the same bet you would have picked up by raising the turn
Loc2K (2:43:44 AM): right?
ocproto (2:44:03 AM): no
ocproto (2:44:10 AM): he led river small
Loc2K (2:44:15 AM): not exactly, but it's one bet
ocproto (2:44:15 AM): well hmm
ocproto (2:44:20 AM): river clubbed
ocproto (2:44:24 AM): so he bet small as a blocker
ocproto (2:44:28 AM): what if it didn't club
ocproto (2:44:30 AM): or non pair
Loc2K (2:44:30 AM): we don't actually know if he bets small on river
Loc2K (2:44:33 AM): we do by results
Loc2K (2:44:37 AM): but he can also pot it
ocproto (2:44:44 AM): hes not capable
ocproto (2:44:52 AM): i watched him for a few hrs
ocproto (2:45:05 AM): w/nuts he bets usually less than $60 pers treet
ocproto (2:45:31 AM): my hand to him looks like a big Ace
ocproto (2:45:35 AM): he probably put me on AK
ocproto (2:45:38 AM): w/gutshot
ocproto (2:45:46 AM): no reason to bet so huge on river
Loc2K (2:47:18 AM): i think you played it perfectly given stacks
Loc2K (2:47:32 AM): for slightly shallower i like a turn shove
ocproto (2:47:34 AM): yea stacks were very awkward
ocproto (2:47:45 AM): i didnt have think it very thoroughly on the turn
ocproto (2:47:48 AM): during the game
ocproto (2:48:29 AM): i m kinda liking a turn raise to 220
ocproto (2:48:44 AM): he leads 40 i make it 180 more for him to call
Loc2K (2:48:48 AM): i wouldn't think of raising
ocproto (2:48:50 AM): hes got 110 left
ocproto (2:48:54 AM): i snap call any river
Loc2K (2:48:55 AM): unless it's shove
ocproto (2:49:07 AM): well im worried he might fold if i shove
Loc2K (2:49:13 AM): the goal here isn't to get it all in though
ocproto (2:49:17 AM): its nto?
ocproto (2:49:21 AM): well not really
ocproto (2:49:25 AM): but i want to extract value
ocproto (2:49:29 AM): i actually want him to call now
Loc2K (2:49:32 AM): no because sometimes the river comes shit
Loc2K (2:49:36 AM): and your turn plan goes to hell
ocproto (2:51:54 AM): wait
ocproto (2:51:58 AM): but u dont care if rivers bad
Loc2K (2:52:21 AM): by bad i mean paired
ocproto (2:52:27 AM): i raise full pot on turn hes got 100 behind
ocproto (2:52:42 AM): river pots 540
Loc2K (2:52:43 AM): i would need to work out the exact math
Loc2K (2:52:47 AM): for whether raising is good
ocproto (2:53:04 AM): im getting 6.4-1 odds to call on any river
Loc2K (2:53:09 AM): the ev depends on when it comes paired and you fold vs when it comes good and you get it in
ocproto (2:53:18 AM): fuck that
Loc2K (2:53:18 AM): yeah but i'm talking both streets
ocproto (2:53:23 AM): im calling any river
Loc2K (2:53:54 AM): that's bad
Loc2K (2:53:57 AM): lol
ocproto (2:54:01 AM): cuz i got more than 2/3rd of his stack in by turn
Loc2K (2:54:17 AM): if you raise enough so that you have to call any river even if it's bad
Loc2K (2:54:19 AM): then your raise was bad
ocproto (2:54:31 AM): y is that?
Loc2K (2:54:41 AM): bc your total ev depends on the choice to fold
ocproto (2:54:44 AM): no
Loc2K (2:54:46 AM): i will wokr out the math later
ocproto (2:54:51 AM): they are 2 seperate decisions
ocproto (2:54:54 AM): in a way
ocproto (2:55:05 AM): if i raise pot hes getting 2-1 odds
ocproto (2:55:10 AM): to call w/set or 1 club of kj
ocproto (2:55:18 AM): he needs 4.5-1 ot breakeven
Loc2K (2:55:20 AM): it doesn't matter what odds you give him
Loc2K (2:55:23 AM): you are raising for value
ocproto (2:55:28 AM): yes
Loc2K (2:55:31 AM): you don't care if he makes a good/bad call
ocproto (2:55:46 AM): y not?
ocproto (2:55:49 AM): yea i do
Loc2K (2:55:50 AM): it's like if you are in a tournament
Loc2K (2:55:57 AM): and the board comes axx two tone
Loc2K (2:56:01 AM): you have ak
Loc2K (2:56:07 AM): since it's two tone there's a flush draw
Loc2K (2:56:14 AM): but that doesn't mean betting half pot is wrong
ocproto (2:56:35 AM): sure long as u dont pay him off when flush hits
Loc2K (2:56:36 AM): you are betting for value
Loc2K (2:56:45 AM): exactly
Loc2K (2:56:50 AM): but you don't NEED to price him out
ocproto (2:56:59 AM): yea u do
ocproto (2:57:05 AM): u want to give him incorrect odds
Loc2K (2:57:11 AM): lol that's so wrong
ocproto (2:57:13 AM): as long as its less than 4.5-1 its good
Loc2K (2:57:22 AM): you don't need to
Loc2K (2:57:31 AM): you only want to if you want to have fold equity
ocproto (2:57:31 AM): then hes makinga profitable call
Loc2K (2:57:36 AM): but in this case you want him to call
Loc2K (2:57:46 AM): yeah but it's profitable for HIM
Loc2K (2:58:01 AM): the fact that it's profitable for him
Loc2K (2:58:08 AM): doesn't automatically mean it's not profitable for you
Loc2K (2:58:25 AM): you are the FAVORITE means you have better equity whether or not you give him correct odds
Loc2K (2:58:31 AM): that's what betting for value means
Loc2K (2:58:38 AM): you get money in while you're good
Loc2K (2:58:46 AM): the only time you want him to have incorrect odds is if you want fold equity
ocproto (2:58:48 AM): if u give correct pot odds
ocproto (2:58:52 AM): ur just bloating the pot really
Loc2K (2:59:01 AM): no, you're raising for value
ocproto (2:59:11 AM): i meant ur AK hand
Loc2K (2:59:21 AM): ever hear of small ball poker?
ocproto (2:59:32 AM): yes
ocproto (2:59:38 AM): small hand small pot
Loc2K (2:59:46 AM): seriously you should stop trying to think that you need to price people out
Loc2K (2:59:52 AM): unless it's a multiway pot
Loc2K (2:59:59 AM): that's one of the biggest leaks you can have
Loc2K (3:00:15 AM): yes there are times when the board comes pretty drawy
Loc2K (3:00:24 AM): and you're going to want to price people out
ocproto (3:00:28 AM): i know that
Loc2K (3:00:31 AM): however, if you know for sure someone has a flush draw
ocproto (3:00:33 AM): its not bout making them fold
Loc2K (3:00:37 AM): betting 1/2 pot is not -ev
ocproto (3:00:38 AM): but giving them incorrect odds
Loc2K (3:00:38 AM): for sure
Loc2K (3:00:47 AM): their odds to call does not affect your ev
Loc2K (3:00:55 AM): you are still winning x of the time if you're favorite
ocproto (3:00:58 AM): the reason 1/2pot is not -ev, is cuz u give them 3-1 odds which is less than the 4.5-1 they need
ocproto (3:01:16 AM): assuming u dont payoff
Loc2K (3:01:30 AM): in a tournament during the late stages
Loc2K (3:01:43 AM): no good player bets pot on two tone heads up
Loc2K (3:02:38 AM): if, however, you believe that he's calling 1/2 pot with similar frequency that he's calling full pot
Loc2K (3:02:43 AM): then your bet should be based on pot control
Loc2K (3:02:52 AM): if you want a big pot, you bet the pot, otherwise bet 1/2
Loc2K (3:03:21 AM): but pricing people out is only valid if you want them to fold
Loc2K (3:03:29 AM): them making a bad call is irrelevant to your ev
Loc2K (3:03:49 AM): well i shouldn't say irrelevant
ocproto (3:03:50 AM): hmm
ocproto (3:03:53 AM): i got to think about that
ocproto (3:03:57 AM): little longer
ocproto (3:04:07 AM): but my reasoning for full pot raise on turn
ocproto (3:04:11 AM): is that i think he will call it
Loc2K (3:04:21 AM): you can bet much less imo
ocproto (3:04:22 AM): instead of a shove which he might fold his set
Loc2K (3:04:46 AM): bet an amount that's big enough to shove the river when the board doesn't pair
Loc2K (3:04:50 AM): but small enough to get away when it does
ocproto (3:04:55 AM): hmm
ocproto (3:04:57 AM): good point
Loc2K (3:05:55 AM): if you leave yourself no choice but to call, your ev is inherently less than if you had a choice
ocproto (3:07:50 AM): well see this is the balance
ocproto (3:08:14 AM): if i get him to call a huge turn raise, its extremely +EV for me
ocproto (3:08:38 AM): thus even if river is shit, its a small -EV cuz the amount to bet on river is so small
Loc2K (3:08:47 AM): it may or may not be better than a shove
ocproto (3:08:51 AM): compared to a smaller turn raise
Loc2K (3:08:52 AM): i will do the math later
ocproto (3:09:08 AM): well im just talking conceptually
ocproto (3:10:29 AM): small turn raise is small +ev, and now on river stacks are still big enuf to fold or shove for value
Loc2K (3:11:09 AM): this hand is a good exercise
ocproto (3:11:20 AM): what do u think of my reasonign i just wrote?
ocproto (3:11:36 AM): im still unsure
Loc2K (3:11:43 AM): the thing is, any raise that is called is +ev
Loc2K (3:11:50 AM): since you are ahead, it serves as a value raise
Loc2K (3:11:57 AM): by definition, you are winning more times than you are losing
ocproto (3:12:06 AM): yet also we got to plan the river too
ocproto (3:12:10 AM): plan for the river
Loc2K (3:12:10 AM): the real matter is how much +ev compared to flat/shove
ocproto (3:12:23 AM): well i thot there's 3 options
ocproto (3:12:34 AM): flat turn/ shove turn/ raise turn
Loc2K (3:12:34 AM): also the fact that you're deep matters in the variance aspect
ocproto (3:12:48 AM): raise turn is also how much too
Loc2K (3:13:42 AM): well how much is pretty obvious
Loc2K (3:13:50 AM): pot is 140
Loc2K (3:13:54 AM): he has 272 left
Loc2K (3:14:09 AM): you prob want river shove to be 3/4 pot
Loc2K (3:15:12 AM): so (312-x)/(140+x) = 3/4
Loc2K (3:15:49 AM): 312-x = 105 + 0.75x
Loc2K (3:16:05 AM): 207 = 1.75x
Loc2K (3:16:15 AM): x = 118
Loc2K (3:17:01 AM): so you make it 118, the pot is 140+118 = 258
Loc2K (3:17:13 AM): he has 312-118 = 194 left behind
Loc2K (3:17:22 AM): perfect
Loc2K (3:18:05 AM): of course, at the table you're just gonna estimate
Loc2K (3:20:06 AM): 118 actually looks decent too, about 3x
ocproto (3:21:48 AM): i got big diff in answer
ocproto (3:22:03 AM): assume stacks on turn are 270 for simplification
Loc2K (3:22:03 AM): lol math error
Loc2K (3:22:09 AM): answer is pretty simple
Loc2K (3:22:13 AM): look at stacks
Loc2K (3:22:26 AM): pick 3x, do quick calc for stacks after that
Loc2K (3:22:30 AM): adjust from there
ocproto (3:22:49 AM): (270-x)/(180+2x)=3/4
ocproto (3:22:58 AM): solve for x i get 54
ocproto (3:23:11 AM): so add that to the turn call i get 94 for raise
ocproto (3:23:24 AM): wait its not that big
ocproto (3:23:28 AM): i was looking at the 54
Loc2K (3:23:31 AM): your first term is wrong
Loc2K (3:23:50 AM): one sec lemme think
ocproto (3:23:54 AM): wait
ocproto (3:24:00 AM): it is wrong
ocproto (3:24:25 AM): exact answer using (272-x)/(180+2x)=3/4; x=54.8 and add that to turn call is 94.8
ocproto (3:24:35 AM): turn raise is 94.8 to get 3/4pot shove on river
ocproto (3:24:44 AM): 94.8 total
Loc2K (3:25:07 AM): (312-x)/(100+2x)=3/4
Loc2K (3:25:11 AM): is the correct equation
Loc2K (3:25:19 AM): he has 312 before putting in the 40
ocproto (3:25:34 AM): shit ur right
Loc2K (3:26:55 AM): 94.8 is the answer
ocproto (3:27:19 AM): yea im right
ocproto (3:27:21 AM): lol
Loc2K (3:27:42 AM): (312-x)/(100+2x)=3/4
312-x=75+1.5x
237=2.5x
x=94.8
ocproto (3:28:06 AM): god thats such a weak raise
ocproto (3:28:14 AM): hell snap call that w/a set
Loc2K (3:28:18 AM): doesn't matter
Loc2K (3:28:28 AM): (1) it sets up a river shove when the board doesn't pair
Loc2K (3:28:36 AM): (2) it induces a reraise all-in
ocproto (3:28:37 AM): ahhh
ocproto (3:28:46 AM): u want to get ur money in w/100% equity
ocproto (3:28:49 AM): on the river
ocproto (3:29:09 AM): instead of 70 or 80 % equity on turn
Loc2K (3:29:20 AM): bad logic
ocproto (3:29:23 AM): no?
Loc2K (3:29:32 AM): river only comes good 34/44 of the time
Loc2K (3:29:58 AM): so your total equity is still 77.3% times what you win when all the money goes in on the river
Loc2K (3:30:28 AM): the times it comes bad you lose your raise, 94.8
ocproto (3:30:56 AM): no
ocproto (3:31:00 AM): river there is no equity
ocproto (3:31:09 AM): assuming we make perfect folds and shoves
ocproto (3:31:27 AM): we wait for non club non pair
ocproto (3:31:32 AM): we're 100% to get it in
Loc2K (3:31:59 AM): so your ev is 0.773*412 - 0.227*94.8
Loc2K (3:32:16 AM): no that's your ev IF THE BOARD DOESN'T PAIR
Loc2K (3:32:29 AM): your ev FOR RAISING on the turn is that equation
Loc2K (3:33:27 AM): so your ev for your turn decision is $296.96, with the assumption that he always stacks off on the river
Loc2K (3:33:43 AM): if he only stacks off a certain percentage, there's more math
Loc2K (3:33:44 AM): lol
Loc2K (3:34:19 AM): let's compare that to if you shove and he calls
Loc2K (3:34:55 AM): you risk 312 to win 412
Loc2K (3:35:26 AM): your ev is worse than the above always
Loc2K (3:35:32 AM): since 312 > 94.8
Loc2K (3:35:48 AM): this is, again, with the assumption that all money goes in on river
Loc2K (3:36:23 AM): clearly raise > shove
Loc2K (3:36:57 AM): ev for flatting is small because we flat and then we flat again
Loc2K (3:37:05 AM): but the variance is lower
Loc2K (3:37:33 AM): i'm not sure if shove or flat is better here and i don't care
Loc2K (3:37:39 AM): bc clearly raise is ahead of both of them by miles
Loc2K (3:38:02 AM): however, i still go for flat whenever stacks are deeper
Loc2K (3:38:32 AM): the real key to this hand is realizing that the river doesn't come ugly enough
Loc2K (3:38:37 AM): that is, a club doesn't do shit
Loc2K (3:40:20 AM): i think our analysis for raising is optimistic though
Loc2K (3:40:28 AM): i'm not convinced he ships it if the river comes a club
Loc2K (3:40:45 AM): the fact that he ships it some of the time is enough
Loc2K (3:40:49 AM): but our ev is still over estimated
ocproto (3:41:01 AM): im still kind of behind on the naalyssi
ocproto (3:41:24 AM): "so your ev is 0.773*412 - 0.227*94.8" shouldn t the 412 be 452
Loc2K (3:41:44 AM): 312 behind plus 100 in the pot
Loc2K (3:41:50 AM): 312 includes the 40
ocproto (3:41:53 AM): yea ur right
ocproto (3:41:54 AM): i got it
Loc2K (3:42:45 AM): all three options are +ev though
Loc2K (3:42:58 AM): the ev optimal one is raising, the variance optimal one is flatting
Loc2K (3:43:31 AM): more importantly, shoving gives your hand away, so i don't think we can do that
Loc2K (3:43:48 AM): raising kind of does too
Loc2K (3:44:05 AM): though i think he rarely folds to a minraise
Loc2K (3:44:12 AM): he can't fold
ocproto (3:44:47 AM): i just did the EV for shoving
ocproto (3:45:03 AM): .773*412 - .227*312 = 247
ocproto (3:45:11 AM): not that far off from 296 no?
Loc2K (3:45:17 AM): not at all
Loc2K (3:45:34 AM): that's why this is an easy spot to play correctly
Loc2K (3:45:39 AM): you can't mess up unless you fold
ocproto (3:45:42 AM): true
Loc2K (3:46:18 AM): i would say raise/shove are about the same ev
Loc2K (3:46:25 AM): given sometimes he's getting away from his hand on the river
ocproto (3:46:26 AM): plus like u said ev is overestimated on the river
ocproto (3:46:30 AM): yea
Loc2K (3:46:38 AM): the shove gives away your hand though
ocproto (3:46:41 AM): cuz he wont always call shoves on perfect rivers
Loc2K (3:46:41 AM): so raising is superior
ocproto (3:46:54 AM): cuz hes more likely to put more money in on turn than river
Loc2K (3:47:02 AM): i'm pretty sure both raising and shoving are superior to flatting
ocproto (3:47:10 AM): lol
ocproto (3:47:14 AM): we just go back and forth
Loc2K (3:47:19 AM): even though flatting is not bad
ocproto (3:47:25 AM): others are better
Loc2K (3:47:27 AM): no, well, flatting is still a good play
Loc2K (3:47:40 AM): btu the ev is clearly smaller than raise/shove
Loc2K (3:48:03 AM): flatting is a valid play if you are paranoid he has kjc/tt
Loc2K (3:48:11 AM): it's low variance
Loc2K (3:48:15 AM): you will still win the pot a lot of the time
Loc2K (3:48:48 AM): in effect, it's the option with the smallest reverse-implied odds
ocproto (3:48:55 AM): at the time, i couldn't figure out if i shud raise
ocproto (3:49:01 AM): and what wud i do if he shoves
ocproto (3:49:13 AM): the turn
Loc2K (3:49:14 AM): that's another problem
Loc2K (3:49:19 AM): if you raise and he shoves
Loc2K (3:49:23 AM): you ahve a tough choice
ocproto (3:49:32 AM): thats why i flatted
ocproto (3:49:55 AM): i wasn't fricking sure
Loc2K (3:49:59 AM): the choice to raise/shove depends heavily on your read of kjc/tt
ocproto (3:50:09 AM): yea i wasn't sure which one it was
Loc2K (3:50:17 AM): in that case your flat is perfect
ocproto (3:50:22 AM): specifically its KJclub club i was worried
ocproto (3:50:35 AM): the nuts
Loc2K (3:50:36 AM): well one club is enough
ocproto (3:50:49 AM): no i meant on the turn
Loc2K (3:50:53 AM): i know
ocproto (3:50:59 AM): 1clubs enuf for what?
Loc2K (3:51:00 AM): but one club is enough to be afraid
Loc2K (3:51:03 AM): he has a redraw
ocproto (3:51:17 AM): afraid so what should i do?
Loc2K (3:51:22 AM): the fact that he could have a club
Loc2K (3:51:42 AM): is the statement: he has at least one club, which includes him having two clubs
Loc2K (3:51:52 AM): so it's sufficient that he has one club for you to worry
ocproto (3:51:53 AM): well almost 70% of his range has a redraw
Loc2K (3:51:56 AM): because he can't have two without having one
Loc2K (3:52:21 AM): yes but in most of those cases the redraw is 3.5:1
ocproto (3:52:38 AM): and?
Loc2K (3:52:59 AM): and we're not afraid of 3.5:1
Loc2K (3:53:11 AM): we're afraid of 3.5:1 plus kjc/tt
Loc2K (3:53:23 AM): bc that would be 2:1
Loc2K (3:53:25 AM): or something
ocproto (3:53:44 AM): oh u mean the specific range of (KJc/TT)
ocproto (3:54:06 AM): (KJc and 2 combos of TTc)
Loc2K (3:54:10 AM): the non-kjc/tt range is 3.5:1 underdog against you
Loc2K (3:54:25 AM): adding kjc/tt gives 2:1 against you
ocproto (3:54:31 AM): yes
Loc2K (3:54:56 AM): i think since it's impossible to know, you should be afraid of kjc/tt
ocproto (3:55:03 AM): u know what'd be sick
ocproto (3:55:09 AM): lol
Loc2K (3:55:10 AM): what
ocproto (3:55:17 AM): if he had Kclubs Jakc offsuit
ocproto (3:55:19 AM): we raise
ocproto (3:55:21 AM): he shoves
ocproto (3:55:26 AM): cuz hes got blocker to the NUTS
ocproto (3:56:08 AM): turn his hand into a semi bluff
Loc2K (3:56:33 AM): see if he shoves we have no idea where we're at
ocproto (3:56:38 AM): exactly
Loc2K (3:56:40 AM): whcih is why i like the flat
ocproto (3:57:05 AM): well ur reasoning assumes hes capable of shipping the turn on a semibluff
ocproto (3:57:20 AM): in reality live, he's not capable of it
Loc2K (3:57:27 AM): pretty much the simplest +ev decision is to flat
ocproto (3:57:43 AM): yea
Loc2K (3:57:53 AM): there are too many dimensions to the other choices
ocproto (4:00:15 AM): no
ocproto (4:00:21 AM): i think a raise is still good in this specific instance
ocproto (4:00:31 AM): hes not capable of semibluffing all in on the turn
ocproto (4:00:59 AM): we raise turn, if he ships it, we auto muck
ocproto (4:01:13 AM): he flats, got a set or straightw/1 club
ocproto (4:01:28 AM): we make a large valuebet on safe river
ocproto (4:01:51 AM): cuz compared with flatting turn, we pretty much got to flat rivers too
ocproto (4:02:04 AM): are we raising safe rivers?
ocproto (4:02:23 AM): actually we are raising safe rivers
ocproto (4:02:26 AM): if we flatted turn
Loc2K (4:02:38 AM): no we flat river
ocproto (4:02:45 AM): even safe rivers?
Loc2K (4:03:02 AM): good point
ocproto (4:03:08 AM): no i like raising safe rivers
Loc2K (4:03:10 AM): we raise bricks for value
ocproto (4:03:16 AM): value raise and fold to a ship
Loc2K (4:03:22 AM): i would do a minraise
ocproto (4:03:31 AM): depends how much he bet
Loc2K (4:03:39 AM): yeah
ocproto (4:03:44 AM): i know he puts me on AK
ocproto (4:03:46 AM): for sure
ocproto (4:04:15 AM): cuz i took a long time to make a scared flop call
ocproto (4:04:32 AM): possibly AK w/1club when i call turn
ocproto (4:05:08 AM): at most id feel hed bet $80
ocproto (4:05:13 AM): on river bricks
ocproto (4:05:26 AM): maybe 60-80
ocproto (4:06:42 AM): yeah a 2x or 2.5x raise on river brick is good
ocproto (4:11:38 AM): i have another aim buddy i got from that deuces thread sn: prplburrito
ocproto (4:11:52 AM): u mind if i share this aim thread with him?
Loc2K (4:12:16 AM): lol i've imed him before
Loc2K (4:12:24 AM): go ahead
Loc2K (4:13:51 AM): what is the rake cap at your casino
Loc2K (4:13:57 AM): $5?
ocproto (4:14:15 AM): this one is Hawaiian Gardens
ocproto (4:14:22 AM): 3.50
ocproto (4:14:28 AM): 3+0.5 jackpot
Loc2K (4:14:39 AM): wow that is dirt cheap
ocproto (4:14:42 AM): i tip a $1
Loc2K (4:14:46 AM): the casino i go to charges $5
Loc2K (4:14:48 AM): and i don't tip
ocproto (4:15:01 AM): well the bigger games its more
ocproto (4:15:05 AM): 1/3nl+
ocproto (4:15:10 AM): its 4+1
ocproto (4:15:47 AM): vegas is dirt cheap
ocproto (4:15:52 AM): 10% and $3 cap
ocproto (4:16:01 AM): cuz here any flop they take full drop
Loc2K (4:26:53 AM): http://loc.loc2k.com/ocproto.txt
Loc2K (4:28:14 AM): you'll need to change the game title to "Full Tilt Poker" in order to convert it though
Loc2K (4:28:26 AM): then you can replace it with hawaiian gardens again