say villain is a tight utg opener, say 16/14
what do u do w/KQ in MP? (bad relative position)
KQ on button?
what are the merits for flatting and 3betting
we have some of the blockers against premium hands
we reduce 1/2 combos of KK or QQ
reduces 1/4 combos of Kx and Qx
by flatting we can steal from hands that might other wise 4bet us pre
ex. we can float Axx and steal from KK and QQ
or raise 832r flops folding out his AK or AQ?
pot control and value bet vs JJ on Qxx or Kxx
we dont auto stack off if we hit either
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Saturday, May 9, 2009
my 10 wk graph
finally im a winner over a decent sample size
i was definitely bluffing a shit ton early on
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Why is it almost always most profitable to give our opponents incorrect odds to draw and how it matters to the profitability of our hand?
Why is it almost always most profitable to give our opponents incorrect odds to draw and how it matters to the profitability of our hand?
Assume we are on the turn and we know our opponent has a draw with 33% equity and we have a made hand (we have 66% equity). Our opponent needs 2-1 odds to break even on his call.
To simplify analysis, we assume opponent never bluffs, so the only way we can get value is by betting while we’re ahead.
Assume the pot is $2 on the turn and we both have $1000 stacks
Basically I can say there are 2 main options for me with a made hand on the turn.
1. to go all in and he’ll fold 100% of the time and I win the current pot on the turn
2. To bet an amount that is less than all in that he will always call. This second option has 3 variations
a.) giving our opponent profitable odds to call
b.) giving our opponent break even odds to call
c.) giving our opponent less than break even odds to call
So let’s compare the our EV for each of the 4 options (1, 2a, 2b, 2c)
1.) I go all in on the turn and he folds 100% of the time, I win the current pot
my EV=$2.
2a.) I bet $1 into the $2 pot, he calls. Pot by river is $4, we have 66% equity which is $2.67, but we must subtract cost of our $1 turn bet. So our EV= $1.67
2b.) I bet $2 into the $2 pot and he calls. Pot by river is $6; we have 66% equity which is $4. But we must subtract the cost of our turn bet. So our EV=$2 when we let him see the river at break even odds
2c.) I bet $4 into the $2 pot and he calls. Pot by river is $10, we have 66% equity which is $6.67, but we must subtract cost of turn bet. So our EV=$2.67
As long as we have over 50% equity then every extra dollar that goes in on the turn will increase our profit but may not be the most +EV decision relative to the other options.
The highest EV is when villain calls with unprofitable odds.
This math behind this changes if it’s multiway, and if villain bluffs his missed draws then our EV decisions must factor in how he will interpret and react to our bet, check, or bet sizing so that we extract maximum value from whether he plays his hand straight forward or bluffs
Assume we are on the turn and we know our opponent has a draw with 33% equity and we have a made hand (we have 66% equity). Our opponent needs 2-1 odds to break even on his call.
To simplify analysis, we assume opponent never bluffs, so the only way we can get value is by betting while we’re ahead.
Assume the pot is $2 on the turn and we both have $1000 stacks
Basically I can say there are 2 main options for me with a made hand on the turn.
1. to go all in and he’ll fold 100% of the time and I win the current pot on the turn
2. To bet an amount that is less than all in that he will always call. This second option has 3 variations
a.) giving our opponent profitable odds to call
b.) giving our opponent break even odds to call
c.) giving our opponent less than break even odds to call
So let’s compare the our EV for each of the 4 options (1, 2a, 2b, 2c)
1.) I go all in on the turn and he folds 100% of the time, I win the current pot
my EV=$2.
2a.) I bet $1 into the $2 pot, he calls. Pot by river is $4, we have 66% equity which is $2.67, but we must subtract cost of our $1 turn bet. So our EV= $1.67
2b.) I bet $2 into the $2 pot and he calls. Pot by river is $6; we have 66% equity which is $4. But we must subtract the cost of our turn bet. So our EV=$2 when we let him see the river at break even odds
2c.) I bet $4 into the $2 pot and he calls. Pot by river is $10, we have 66% equity which is $6.67, but we must subtract cost of turn bet. So our EV=$2.67
As long as we have over 50% equity then every extra dollar that goes in on the turn will increase our profit but may not be the most +EV decision relative to the other options.
The highest EV is when villain calls with unprofitable odds.
This math behind this changes if it’s multiway, and if villain bluffs his missed draws then our EV decisions must factor in how he will interpret and react to our bet, check, or bet sizing so that we extract maximum value from whether he plays his hand straight forward or bluffs
Sunday, April 19, 2009
conversation w/loc
this is a chat log w/loc about a interesting hand i played at 1/2nl live
ocproto (6:20:22 PM): yo
Loc2K (6:20:27 PM): yo
ocproto (6:20:59 PM): jus woke up after finishing a 20hr live session
Loc2K (6:21:05 PM): how did that go
ocproto (6:21:18 PM): i increased my networth by 20%
Loc2K (6:21:24 PM): haha nice
Loc2K (6:21:29 PM): so you won 100 bucks?
Loc2K (6:21:31 PM): lol
ocproto (6:21:36 PM): 120
Loc2K (6:21:39 PM): haha
ocproto (6:21:45 PM): -food=100 net
Loc2K (6:22:00 PM): i'm playing live 200nl tomorrow
Loc2K (6:22:08 PM): only planning on bringing ~250 though
ocproto (6:22:11 PM): how d it go last time?
Loc2K (6:22:17 PM): didn't go last time
Loc2K (6:22:22 PM): postponed
ocproto (6:22:28 PM): i bring like 500
Loc2K (6:22:29 PM): i'm planning on shortstacking
Loc2K (6:22:47 PM): probably 40, 40, 40, 130
Loc2K (6:22:50 PM): so i have 4 shots
ocproto (6:23:28 PM): did i tell u
ocproto (6:23:37 PM): im officially a 0.73 ptbb winner over 13k hands
Loc2K (6:23:44 PM): haha nice
ocproto (6:23:51 PM): +10 buyins in last 1000 hands
Loc2K (6:23:55 PM): i'm up 100 this month finally
Loc2K (6:24:00 PM): now i can move back up
ocproto (6:24:32 PM): so ru planning on doing poker for career?
Loc2K (6:24:36 PM): actually it depends on how my live session goes
Loc2K (6:24:39 PM): yes
ocproto (6:24:49 PM): u kno after i finsih my eng deg
ocproto (6:25:02 PM): im kind of tempted to go into hospital technician work
ocproto (6:25:07 PM): xray or respiratory tech
ocproto (6:25:17 PM): base bay should be like 30 or 35 /hr
ocproto (6:25:25 PM): offer flexible scheduling,
ocproto (6:25:30 PM): do poker on the side
Loc2K (6:25:50 PM): that's pretty decent
ocproto (6:26:27 PM): any shift over 8hrs is over time, holidays r like 2x pay
ocproto (6:26:36 PM): u shud check it out if ur interested
Loc2K (6:28:02 PM): working sucks
Loc2K (6:28:03 PM): haha
Loc2K (9:18:30 PM): http://www.pokerhand.org/?4125927
Loc2K (9:18:37 PM): look at the results
ocproto (9:20:44 PM): coolers
ocproto (1:55:59 AM): i got a live hand
ocproto (1:57:04 AM): 1/2nl my image is TAG, villain is typical tight passive predictable not really capable of huge bluffs
ocproto (1:57:20 AM): BB: $360 (villain)
UTG: $300
Hero:$500 is UTG +1 w/96cc
Preflop: UTG limps, hero raises to 8, BB calls, UTG calls
Flop ($22) AcQcTd
BB checks, UTG checks, hero bets 16
BB check/raises to 40, utg folds Hero calls
(I ask how much he has behind and think about it before I call)
Turn($100)AcQcTd4c
Bb bets $40,
ocproto (1:57:24 AM): ?
Loc2K (1:58:18 AM): my move is fold pf
Loc2K (1:58:48 AM): but since you made a hand
Loc2K (1:58:53 AM): flop play is fine
Loc2K (1:59:11 AM): you have to raise the turn
Loc2K (1:59:20 AM): there is no choice really
Loc2K (1:59:33 AM): i would just shove
Loc2K (1:59:41 AM): if the river comes a club, you're screwed
Loc2K (1:59:47 AM): furthermore, if it pairs you're screwed
Loc2K (2:00:28 AM): there are 8 remaining clubs and ~9 non-club pairing cards
Loc2K (2:00:47 AM): of which probably 80-90% are bad for your hand
Loc2K (2:01:57 AM): shove turn
Loc2K (2:02:04 AM): if he calls you're likely 3.5:1 favorite
Loc2K (2:06:25 AM): lemme think about stacks
Loc2K (2:06:31 AM): he contributed 88 so far
Loc2K (2:06:38 AM): 272 behind
ocproto (2:06:41 AM): yup
ocproto (2:06:46 AM): 130bbs
ocproto (2:06:55 AM): my goal is to make my flush
ocproto (2:07:10 AM): but im not sure if its strong enuf to play for stacks
ocproto (2:07:30 AM): im 100 percent sure he is not c/r with a naked flush draw
ocproto (2:07:38 AM): he might have KJcc
Loc2K (2:07:39 AM): well the c/r is not a flush
Loc2K (2:07:40 AM): for sure
Loc2K (2:07:50 AM): it's a set or two pair or a made straight
Loc2K (2:08:00 AM): you are way ahead on the turn
ocproto (2:08:00 AM): set or straight
ocproto (2:08:02 AM): not even 2 pair
ocproto (2:08:14 AM): live has extremely narrow ranges
Loc2K (2:08:54 AM): you are awkwardly deep
Loc2K (2:09:04 AM): it's shallow enough to where i would still shove
ocproto (2:09:14 AM): yeah i think i shud shove too
Loc2K (2:09:22 AM): only bc the alternatives are kind of bad
ocproto (2:09:43 AM): can we raise and fold to a shove?
Loc2K (2:09:47 AM): if he is not folding to a shove, he's not folding to a raise
ocproto (2:10:08 AM): he might if he has a set
Loc2K (2:10:08 AM): and if you raise and he flats, you have a tough choice on the river 1/3 of the time
Loc2K (2:10:29 AM): i would just get it in
Loc2K (2:10:34 AM): if he has a higher flush, fuck me
Loc2K (2:10:51 AM): the thing is, if you shove... your hand is pretty face up as a flush
ocproto (2:10:52 AM): yeah strong chance of flopped straight
ocproto (2:10:56 AM): exactly
ocproto (2:11:07 AM): honestly iw as hoping to shove the river
ocproto (2:11:13 AM): i ended up flatting turn
Loc2K (2:11:14 AM): i can see calling here being okay...
Loc2K (2:11:21 AM): because of stack depth
Loc2K (2:11:40 AM): but i still like a shove
Loc2K (2:12:00 AM): call turn and fold river is inferior to shoving and having him fold
Loc2K (2:12:09 AM): can't be too greedy and expect him to call 100% of the time
Loc2K (2:12:17 AM): just shove it in while you're ahead
ocproto (2:12:29 AM): u dont like flatting
ocproto (2:12:34 AM): and shoving a non pair no club
Loc2K (2:12:46 AM): i think flatting is okay but shoving is better
ocproto (2:12:56 AM): no i meant im shoving river
ocproto (2:12:57 AM): instead
Loc2K (2:13:06 AM): that's bad
ocproto (2:13:12 AM): cuz i put his range mostly on sets and straight
Loc2K (2:13:16 AM): i mean it's not THAT bad
ocproto (2:13:19 AM): only possible flush is KJcc
ocproto (2:13:22 AM): the nuts
Loc2K (2:13:24 AM): but 1/3 of the time a crap card comes
ocproto (2:13:35 AM): its not 1/3
Loc2K (2:13:40 AM): i would flat if it were slightly deeper
ocproto (2:13:41 AM): 1/5
ocproto (2:13:47 AM): oh wait
ocproto (2:13:52 AM): the pairing
ocproto (2:13:53 AM): ur right
ocproto (2:14:07 AM): shit
ocproto (2:14:11 AM): i didnt think about all that
ocproto (2:14:20 AM): i definitely should have shoved
Loc2K (2:14:27 AM): yeah
ocproto (2:14:31 AM): god i hate
ocproto (2:14:37 AM): missing value
Loc2K (2:14:40 AM): 50-100bb deeper and i'm flatting
ocproto (2:14:50 AM): so i flat the turn
Loc2K (2:14:59 AM): just bc when you shove the turn that deep he is never calling w/worse
ocproto (2:15:09 AM): river comes a 6 of clubs
Loc2K (2:15:24 AM): err you have the 6c
Loc2K (2:15:26 AM): make it 7c
Loc2K (2:15:27 AM): lol
ocproto (2:15:29 AM): yea
ocproto (2:15:55 AM): river ($180) he insta bets 40
ocproto (2:16:09 AM): now in previous hands where he had nut flush in multiway pot
ocproto (2:16:22 AM): he'll lead pretty small and flat call a check raise on the turn
ocproto (2:16:30 AM): to get someone behind him to call
Loc2K (2:16:30 AM): actually
ocproto (2:16:40 AM): and lead like 20 into 120 pot on river
Loc2K (2:16:46 AM): we are wrong about a club being that bad
Loc2K (2:16:57 AM): if i flat the turn i am instacalling a bet on the river that's smaller than pot
Loc2K (2:17:07 AM): the reason is if he has a set
Loc2K (2:17:12 AM): the only set that contains a club is tt
ocproto (2:17:20 AM): yea i called his bet
Loc2K (2:17:26 AM): how did that work out
ocproto (2:17:31 AM): i won
ocproto (2:17:35 AM): he had QQ
ocproto (2:17:37 AM): set
Loc2K (2:17:43 AM): yeah see
Loc2K (2:17:48 AM): every other set on that board
Loc2K (2:17:51 AM): does not have a club
ocproto (2:17:57 AM): still i was paranoid he had KJ
ocproto (2:17:59 AM): with 1 club
Loc2K (2:18:04 AM): so flatting there is not bad at all
ocproto (2:18:18 AM): we got to count combos of sets vs straights
ocproto (2:18:53 AM): he can only possibly have QQ or TT or a straight
ocproto (2:18:57 AM): to check raise
Loc2K (2:19:13 AM): well if he bets pot you only have to win 33% of the time
Loc2K (2:19:58 AM): you beat sets: aa,qq,non-club tt, 44
Loc2K (2:20:36 AM): 3+3+1+3
Loc2K (2:20:39 AM): =10
ocproto (2:21:06 AM): no Aa
ocproto (2:21:12 AM): he would reraise preflop
Loc2K (2:21:17 AM): he didn't w/qq
ocproto (2:21:25 AM): cuz we were deep i assume
Loc2K (2:21:25 AM): i put aa in range too
Loc2K (2:21:43 AM): 8 combos of kj w/one club
Loc2K (2:21:49 AM): 2 of tt with one club
ocproto (2:21:51 AM): how d u do that
ocproto (2:21:57 AM): 8 combos of KJ w/1club?
Loc2K (2:22:02 AM): 1x4 + 1x4
Loc2K (2:22:11 AM): take the king of clubs, match it with all four jacks
Loc2K (2:22:16 AM): take the jack of clubs, match it with all four kings
Loc2K (2:22:27 AM): so that's 10 combos too
Loc2K (2:22:31 AM): you win 50% of the time
Loc2K (2:22:35 AM): and you only need to win 33%
Loc2K (2:22:45 AM): so if he bets pot, you call
ocproto (2:22:47 AM): shud be 7 right?
Loc2K (2:22:55 AM): 7?
ocproto (2:22:55 AM): 7 combos of KJ w/1 club
Loc2K (2:23:02 AM): why 7
ocproto (2:23:07 AM): r u counting KJcc twice?
Loc2K (2:23:19 AM): you're right
Loc2K (2:23:20 AM): my bad
Loc2K (2:23:27 AM): good observation
ocproto (2:23:41 AM): id say also discount the AA too
ocproto (2:23:49 AM): give it 2 combos of AA
Loc2K (2:23:53 AM): so you win 10/19
Loc2K (2:24:01 AM): =52.6%
Loc2K (2:24:15 AM): it really doesn't matter, take out aa and you still > 33%
Loc2K (2:24:27 AM): 7/17 = 41%
Loc2K (2:24:31 AM): oops
Loc2K (2:24:42 AM): 7/16 = 43.8%
Loc2K (2:25:05 AM): easy call
ocproto (2:25:09 AM): yes
Loc2K (2:25:45 AM): however, if you are a little more shallow
Loc2K (2:25:49 AM): i like a turn shove
Loc2K (2:26:06 AM): he's usually not betting the river on a 4flush board unless he's insane
ocproto (2:26:07 AM): as played i completely agree
ocproto (2:26:18 AM): river is a snap call
ocproto (2:26:30 AM): especially for less than 1/2pot
Loc2K (2:26:45 AM): the 40 looks like a blocking bet
Loc2K (2:26:53 AM): but you can't raise for value obv
ocproto (2:27:07 AM): but we're also assuming villain bets river w/his entire range
ocproto (2:27:15 AM): say he 1/2pots it
ocproto (2:27:19 AM): bets $100
ocproto (2:27:22 AM): into 180 on river
ocproto (2:27:40 AM): is he really betting his entire range there?
Loc2K (2:28:10 AM): some percentage of the time he's going to turn his set into a bluff thinking you called down w/an ace
Loc2K (2:28:21 AM): you have to call
ocproto (2:31:13 AM): so whats ur conclusion on the turn play?
ocproto (2:31:15 AM): call or shove
Loc2K (2:33:32 AM): if the depth doesn't bother you, shove
Loc2K (2:33:36 AM): otherwise call is perfectly fine
Loc2K (2:33:47 AM): after analysis i lean towards calling
Loc2K (2:34:13 AM): the answer is a matter of depth
ocproto (2:36:34 AM): yea cuz if i shove turn it's 2xpot
Loc2K (2:36:57 AM): your reason for shoving the turn is not to protect your hand, though
ocproto (2:37:04 AM): no?
Loc2K (2:37:08 AM): it's so that you don't lose action on a club river
Loc2K (2:37:23 AM): remember that a club isn't THAT bad for us
Loc2K (2:37:29 AM): in that we still have the best hand a lot of hte time
ocproto (2:37:31 AM): hmm yea
Loc2K (2:37:39 AM): it is bad in the sense that we won't get any additional value out of it
ocproto (2:37:56 AM): river club turns us into a calling station
ocproto (2:38:25 AM): in addition to killing our action
ocproto (2:38:29 AM): hes still got 10 outs w/his set
Loc2K (2:38:46 AM): well yeah but on paired rivers we don't care about losing action
Loc2K (2:39:10 AM): it's deep enough to where we can let him peel with 3.5:1
ocproto (2:39:14 AM): no i meant he has set so thats more reason to shove turn
Loc2K (2:39:31 AM): well he hits 1/4.5 times
ocproto (2:39:32 AM): yea ur right
ocproto (2:39:39 AM): hes not exactly getting odds
ocproto (2:40:01 AM): same odds if he has KJ w/ a club
ocproto (2:41:44 AM): so if we'renot that afraid of rivers
ocproto (2:41:51 AM): y not make a value raise on turn
ocproto (2:42:12 AM): raise him an additional 1/2 of his stack
Loc2K (2:42:24 AM): you make an excellent point
Loc2K (2:42:28 AM): i was jus thinking about that
Loc2K (2:42:36 AM): but...
Loc2K (2:42:51 AM): you know what all three options are pretty attractive
Loc2K (2:42:58 AM): the sucky part about raising the turn
Loc2K (2:43:05 AM): is when he flats and the board pairs the river
Loc2K (2:43:08 AM): you just lost your raise
ocproto (2:43:12 AM): fuck it
Loc2K (2:43:32 AM): whereas if you flat, as you did, and he leads out of position
Loc2K (2:43:35 AM): you pick up a bet
Loc2K (2:43:42 AM): the same bet you would have picked up by raising the turn
Loc2K (2:43:44 AM): right?
ocproto (2:44:03 AM): no
ocproto (2:44:10 AM): he led river small
Loc2K (2:44:15 AM): not exactly, but it's one bet
ocproto (2:44:15 AM): well hmm
ocproto (2:44:20 AM): river clubbed
ocproto (2:44:24 AM): so he bet small as a blocker
ocproto (2:44:28 AM): what if it didn't club
ocproto (2:44:30 AM): or non pair
Loc2K (2:44:30 AM): we don't actually know if he bets small on river
Loc2K (2:44:33 AM): we do by results
Loc2K (2:44:37 AM): but he can also pot it
ocproto (2:44:44 AM): hes not capable
ocproto (2:44:52 AM): i watched him for a few hrs
ocproto (2:45:05 AM): w/nuts he bets usually less than $60 pers treet
ocproto (2:45:31 AM): my hand to him looks like a big Ace
ocproto (2:45:35 AM): he probably put me on AK
ocproto (2:45:38 AM): w/gutshot
ocproto (2:45:46 AM): no reason to bet so huge on river
Loc2K (2:47:18 AM): i think you played it perfectly given stacks
Loc2K (2:47:32 AM): for slightly shallower i like a turn shove
ocproto (2:47:34 AM): yea stacks were very awkward
ocproto (2:47:45 AM): i didnt have think it very thoroughly on the turn
ocproto (2:47:48 AM): during the game
ocproto (2:48:29 AM): i m kinda liking a turn raise to 220
ocproto (2:48:44 AM): he leads 40 i make it 180 more for him to call
Loc2K (2:48:48 AM): i wouldn't think of raising
ocproto (2:48:50 AM): hes got 110 left
ocproto (2:48:54 AM): i snap call any river
Loc2K (2:48:55 AM): unless it's shove
ocproto (2:49:07 AM): well im worried he might fold if i shove
Loc2K (2:49:13 AM): the goal here isn't to get it all in though
ocproto (2:49:17 AM): its nto?
ocproto (2:49:21 AM): well not really
ocproto (2:49:25 AM): but i want to extract value
ocproto (2:49:29 AM): i actually want him to call now
Loc2K (2:49:32 AM): no because sometimes the river comes shit
Loc2K (2:49:36 AM): and your turn plan goes to hell
ocproto (2:51:54 AM): wait
ocproto (2:51:58 AM): but u dont care if rivers bad
Loc2K (2:52:21 AM): by bad i mean paired
ocproto (2:52:27 AM): i raise full pot on turn hes got 100 behind
ocproto (2:52:42 AM): river pots 540
Loc2K (2:52:43 AM): i would need to work out the exact math
Loc2K (2:52:47 AM): for whether raising is good
ocproto (2:53:04 AM): im getting 6.4-1 odds to call on any river
Loc2K (2:53:09 AM): the ev depends on when it comes paired and you fold vs when it comes good and you get it in
ocproto (2:53:18 AM): fuck that
Loc2K (2:53:18 AM): yeah but i'm talking both streets
ocproto (2:53:23 AM): im calling any river
Loc2K (2:53:54 AM): that's bad
Loc2K (2:53:57 AM): lol
ocproto (2:54:01 AM): cuz i got more than 2/3rd of his stack in by turn
Loc2K (2:54:17 AM): if you raise enough so that you have to call any river even if it's bad
Loc2K (2:54:19 AM): then your raise was bad
ocproto (2:54:31 AM): y is that?
Loc2K (2:54:41 AM): bc your total ev depends on the choice to fold
ocproto (2:54:44 AM): no
Loc2K (2:54:46 AM): i will wokr out the math later
ocproto (2:54:51 AM): they are 2 seperate decisions
ocproto (2:54:54 AM): in a way
ocproto (2:55:05 AM): if i raise pot hes getting 2-1 odds
ocproto (2:55:10 AM): to call w/set or 1 club of kj
ocproto (2:55:18 AM): he needs 4.5-1 ot breakeven
Loc2K (2:55:20 AM): it doesn't matter what odds you give him
Loc2K (2:55:23 AM): you are raising for value
ocproto (2:55:28 AM): yes
Loc2K (2:55:31 AM): you don't care if he makes a good/bad call
ocproto (2:55:46 AM): y not?
ocproto (2:55:49 AM): yea i do
Loc2K (2:55:50 AM): it's like if you are in a tournament
Loc2K (2:55:57 AM): and the board comes axx two tone
Loc2K (2:56:01 AM): you have ak
Loc2K (2:56:07 AM): since it's two tone there's a flush draw
Loc2K (2:56:14 AM): but that doesn't mean betting half pot is wrong
ocproto (2:56:35 AM): sure long as u dont pay him off when flush hits
Loc2K (2:56:36 AM): you are betting for value
Loc2K (2:56:45 AM): exactly
Loc2K (2:56:50 AM): but you don't NEED to price him out
ocproto (2:56:59 AM): yea u do
ocproto (2:57:05 AM): u want to give him incorrect odds
Loc2K (2:57:11 AM): lol that's so wrong
ocproto (2:57:13 AM): as long as its less than 4.5-1 its good
Loc2K (2:57:22 AM): you don't need to
Loc2K (2:57:31 AM): you only want to if you want to have fold equity
ocproto (2:57:31 AM): then hes makinga profitable call
Loc2K (2:57:36 AM): but in this case you want him to call
Loc2K (2:57:46 AM): yeah but it's profitable for HIM
Loc2K (2:58:01 AM): the fact that it's profitable for him
Loc2K (2:58:08 AM): doesn't automatically mean it's not profitable for you
Loc2K (2:58:25 AM): you are the FAVORITE means you have better equity whether or not you give him correct odds
Loc2K (2:58:31 AM): that's what betting for value means
Loc2K (2:58:38 AM): you get money in while you're good
Loc2K (2:58:46 AM): the only time you want him to have incorrect odds is if you want fold equity
ocproto (2:58:48 AM): if u give correct pot odds
ocproto (2:58:52 AM): ur just bloating the pot really
Loc2K (2:59:01 AM): no, you're raising for value
ocproto (2:59:11 AM): i meant ur AK hand
Loc2K (2:59:21 AM): ever hear of small ball poker?
ocproto (2:59:32 AM): yes
ocproto (2:59:38 AM): small hand small pot
Loc2K (2:59:46 AM): seriously you should stop trying to think that you need to price people out
Loc2K (2:59:52 AM): unless it's a multiway pot
Loc2K (2:59:59 AM): that's one of the biggest leaks you can have
Loc2K (3:00:15 AM): yes there are times when the board comes pretty drawy
Loc2K (3:00:24 AM): and you're going to want to price people out
ocproto (3:00:28 AM): i know that
Loc2K (3:00:31 AM): however, if you know for sure someone has a flush draw
ocproto (3:00:33 AM): its not bout making them fold
Loc2K (3:00:37 AM): betting 1/2 pot is not -ev
ocproto (3:00:38 AM): but giving them incorrect odds
Loc2K (3:00:38 AM): for sure
Loc2K (3:00:47 AM): their odds to call does not affect your ev
Loc2K (3:00:55 AM): you are still winning x of the time if you're favorite
ocproto (3:00:58 AM): the reason 1/2pot is not -ev, is cuz u give them 3-1 odds which is less than the 4.5-1 they need
ocproto (3:01:16 AM): assuming u dont payoff
Loc2K (3:01:30 AM): in a tournament during the late stages
Loc2K (3:01:43 AM): no good player bets pot on two tone heads up
Loc2K (3:02:38 AM): if, however, you believe that he's calling 1/2 pot with similar frequency that he's calling full pot
Loc2K (3:02:43 AM): then your bet should be based on pot control
Loc2K (3:02:52 AM): if you want a big pot, you bet the pot, otherwise bet 1/2
Loc2K (3:03:21 AM): but pricing people out is only valid if you want them to fold
Loc2K (3:03:29 AM): them making a bad call is irrelevant to your ev
Loc2K (3:03:49 AM): well i shouldn't say irrelevant
ocproto (3:03:50 AM): hmm
ocproto (3:03:53 AM): i got to think about that
ocproto (3:03:57 AM): little longer
ocproto (3:04:07 AM): but my reasoning for full pot raise on turn
ocproto (3:04:11 AM): is that i think he will call it
Loc2K (3:04:21 AM): you can bet much less imo
ocproto (3:04:22 AM): instead of a shove which he might fold his set
Loc2K (3:04:46 AM): bet an amount that's big enough to shove the river when the board doesn't pair
Loc2K (3:04:50 AM): but small enough to get away when it does
ocproto (3:04:55 AM): hmm
ocproto (3:04:57 AM): good point
Loc2K (3:05:55 AM): if you leave yourself no choice but to call, your ev is inherently less than if you had a choice
ocproto (3:07:50 AM): well see this is the balance
ocproto (3:08:14 AM): if i get him to call a huge turn raise, its extremely +EV for me
ocproto (3:08:38 AM): thus even if river is shit, its a small -EV cuz the amount to bet on river is so small
Loc2K (3:08:47 AM): it may or may not be better than a shove
ocproto (3:08:51 AM): compared to a smaller turn raise
Loc2K (3:08:52 AM): i will do the math later
ocproto (3:09:08 AM): well im just talking conceptually
ocproto (3:10:29 AM): small turn raise is small +ev, and now on river stacks are still big enuf to fold or shove for value
Loc2K (3:11:09 AM): this hand is a good exercise
ocproto (3:11:20 AM): what do u think of my reasonign i just wrote?
ocproto (3:11:36 AM): im still unsure
Loc2K (3:11:43 AM): the thing is, any raise that is called is +ev
Loc2K (3:11:50 AM): since you are ahead, it serves as a value raise
Loc2K (3:11:57 AM): by definition, you are winning more times than you are losing
ocproto (3:12:06 AM): yet also we got to plan the river too
ocproto (3:12:10 AM): plan for the river
Loc2K (3:12:10 AM): the real matter is how much +ev compared to flat/shove
ocproto (3:12:23 AM): well i thot there's 3 options
ocproto (3:12:34 AM): flat turn/ shove turn/ raise turn
Loc2K (3:12:34 AM): also the fact that you're deep matters in the variance aspect
ocproto (3:12:48 AM): raise turn is also how much too
Loc2K (3:13:42 AM): well how much is pretty obvious
Loc2K (3:13:50 AM): pot is 140
Loc2K (3:13:54 AM): he has 272 left
Loc2K (3:14:09 AM): you prob want river shove to be 3/4 pot
Loc2K (3:15:12 AM): so (312-x)/(140+x) = 3/4
Loc2K (3:15:49 AM): 312-x = 105 + 0.75x
Loc2K (3:16:05 AM): 207 = 1.75x
Loc2K (3:16:15 AM): x = 118
Loc2K (3:17:01 AM): so you make it 118, the pot is 140+118 = 258
Loc2K (3:17:13 AM): he has 312-118 = 194 left behind
Loc2K (3:17:22 AM): perfect
Loc2K (3:18:05 AM): of course, at the table you're just gonna estimate
Loc2K (3:20:06 AM): 118 actually looks decent too, about 3x
ocproto (3:21:48 AM): i got big diff in answer
ocproto (3:22:03 AM): assume stacks on turn are 270 for simplification
Loc2K (3:22:03 AM): lol math error
Loc2K (3:22:09 AM): answer is pretty simple
Loc2K (3:22:13 AM): look at stacks
Loc2K (3:22:26 AM): pick 3x, do quick calc for stacks after that
Loc2K (3:22:30 AM): adjust from there
ocproto (3:22:49 AM): (270-x)/(180+2x)=3/4
ocproto (3:22:58 AM): solve for x i get 54
ocproto (3:23:11 AM): so add that to the turn call i get 94 for raise
ocproto (3:23:24 AM): wait its not that big
ocproto (3:23:28 AM): i was looking at the 54
Loc2K (3:23:31 AM): your first term is wrong
Loc2K (3:23:50 AM): one sec lemme think
ocproto (3:23:54 AM): wait
ocproto (3:24:00 AM): it is wrong
ocproto (3:24:25 AM): exact answer using (272-x)/(180+2x)=3/4; x=54.8 and add that to turn call is 94.8
ocproto (3:24:35 AM): turn raise is 94.8 to get 3/4pot shove on river
ocproto (3:24:44 AM): 94.8 total
Loc2K (3:25:07 AM): (312-x)/(100+2x)=3/4
Loc2K (3:25:11 AM): is the correct equation
Loc2K (3:25:19 AM): he has 312 before putting in the 40
ocproto (3:25:34 AM): shit ur right
Loc2K (3:26:55 AM): 94.8 is the answer
ocproto (3:27:19 AM): yea im right
ocproto (3:27:21 AM): lol
Loc2K (3:27:42 AM): (312-x)/(100+2x)=3/4
312-x=75+1.5x
237=2.5x
x=94.8
ocproto (3:28:06 AM): god thats such a weak raise
ocproto (3:28:14 AM): hell snap call that w/a set
Loc2K (3:28:18 AM): doesn't matter
Loc2K (3:28:28 AM): (1) it sets up a river shove when the board doesn't pair
Loc2K (3:28:36 AM): (2) it induces a reraise all-in
ocproto (3:28:37 AM): ahhh
ocproto (3:28:46 AM): u want to get ur money in w/100% equity
ocproto (3:28:49 AM): on the river
ocproto (3:29:09 AM): instead of 70 or 80 % equity on turn
Loc2K (3:29:20 AM): bad logic
ocproto (3:29:23 AM): no?
Loc2K (3:29:32 AM): river only comes good 34/44 of the time
Loc2K (3:29:58 AM): so your total equity is still 77.3% times what you win when all the money goes in on the river
Loc2K (3:30:28 AM): the times it comes bad you lose your raise, 94.8
ocproto (3:30:56 AM): no
ocproto (3:31:00 AM): river there is no equity
ocproto (3:31:09 AM): assuming we make perfect folds and shoves
ocproto (3:31:27 AM): we wait for non club non pair
ocproto (3:31:32 AM): we're 100% to get it in
Loc2K (3:31:59 AM): so your ev is 0.773*412 - 0.227*94.8
Loc2K (3:32:16 AM): no that's your ev IF THE BOARD DOESN'T PAIR
Loc2K (3:32:29 AM): your ev FOR RAISING on the turn is that equation
Loc2K (3:33:27 AM): so your ev for your turn decision is $296.96, with the assumption that he always stacks off on the river
Loc2K (3:33:43 AM): if he only stacks off a certain percentage, there's more math
Loc2K (3:33:44 AM): lol
Loc2K (3:34:19 AM): let's compare that to if you shove and he calls
Loc2K (3:34:55 AM): you risk 312 to win 412
Loc2K (3:35:26 AM): your ev is worse than the above always
Loc2K (3:35:32 AM): since 312 > 94.8
Loc2K (3:35:48 AM): this is, again, with the assumption that all money goes in on river
Loc2K (3:36:23 AM): clearly raise > shove
Loc2K (3:36:57 AM): ev for flatting is small because we flat and then we flat again
Loc2K (3:37:05 AM): but the variance is lower
Loc2K (3:37:33 AM): i'm not sure if shove or flat is better here and i don't care
Loc2K (3:37:39 AM): bc clearly raise is ahead of both of them by miles
Loc2K (3:38:02 AM): however, i still go for flat whenever stacks are deeper
Loc2K (3:38:32 AM): the real key to this hand is realizing that the river doesn't come ugly enough
Loc2K (3:38:37 AM): that is, a club doesn't do shit
Loc2K (3:40:20 AM): i think our analysis for raising is optimistic though
Loc2K (3:40:28 AM): i'm not convinced he ships it if the river comes a club
Loc2K (3:40:45 AM): the fact that he ships it some of the time is enough
Loc2K (3:40:49 AM): but our ev is still over estimated
ocproto (3:41:01 AM): im still kind of behind on the naalyssi
ocproto (3:41:24 AM): "so your ev is 0.773*412 - 0.227*94.8" shouldn t the 412 be 452
Loc2K (3:41:44 AM): 312 behind plus 100 in the pot
Loc2K (3:41:50 AM): 312 includes the 40
ocproto (3:41:53 AM): yea ur right
ocproto (3:41:54 AM): i got it
Loc2K (3:42:45 AM): all three options are +ev though
Loc2K (3:42:58 AM): the ev optimal one is raising, the variance optimal one is flatting
Loc2K (3:43:31 AM): more importantly, shoving gives your hand away, so i don't think we can do that
Loc2K (3:43:48 AM): raising kind of does too
Loc2K (3:44:05 AM): though i think he rarely folds to a minraise
Loc2K (3:44:12 AM): he can't fold
ocproto (3:44:47 AM): i just did the EV for shoving
ocproto (3:45:03 AM): .773*412 - .227*312 = 247
ocproto (3:45:11 AM): not that far off from 296 no?
Loc2K (3:45:17 AM): not at all
Loc2K (3:45:34 AM): that's why this is an easy spot to play correctly
Loc2K (3:45:39 AM): you can't mess up unless you fold
ocproto (3:45:42 AM): true
Loc2K (3:46:18 AM): i would say raise/shove are about the same ev
Loc2K (3:46:25 AM): given sometimes he's getting away from his hand on the river
ocproto (3:46:26 AM): plus like u said ev is overestimated on the river
ocproto (3:46:30 AM): yea
Loc2K (3:46:38 AM): the shove gives away your hand though
ocproto (3:46:41 AM): cuz he wont always call shoves on perfect rivers
Loc2K (3:46:41 AM): so raising is superior
ocproto (3:46:54 AM): cuz hes more likely to put more money in on turn than river
Loc2K (3:47:02 AM): i'm pretty sure both raising and shoving are superior to flatting
ocproto (3:47:10 AM): lol
ocproto (3:47:14 AM): we just go back and forth
Loc2K (3:47:19 AM): even though flatting is not bad
ocproto (3:47:25 AM): others are better
Loc2K (3:47:27 AM): no, well, flatting is still a good play
Loc2K (3:47:40 AM): btu the ev is clearly smaller than raise/shove
Loc2K (3:48:03 AM): flatting is a valid play if you are paranoid he has kjc/tt
Loc2K (3:48:11 AM): it's low variance
Loc2K (3:48:15 AM): you will still win the pot a lot of the time
Loc2K (3:48:48 AM): in effect, it's the option with the smallest reverse-implied odds
ocproto (3:48:55 AM): at the time, i couldn't figure out if i shud raise
ocproto (3:49:01 AM): and what wud i do if he shoves
ocproto (3:49:13 AM): the turn
Loc2K (3:49:14 AM): that's another problem
Loc2K (3:49:19 AM): if you raise and he shoves
Loc2K (3:49:23 AM): you ahve a tough choice
ocproto (3:49:32 AM): thats why i flatted
ocproto (3:49:55 AM): i wasn't fricking sure
Loc2K (3:49:59 AM): the choice to raise/shove depends heavily on your read of kjc/tt
ocproto (3:50:09 AM): yea i wasn't sure which one it was
Loc2K (3:50:17 AM): in that case your flat is perfect
ocproto (3:50:22 AM): specifically its KJclub club i was worried
ocproto (3:50:35 AM): the nuts
Loc2K (3:50:36 AM): well one club is enough
ocproto (3:50:49 AM): no i meant on the turn
Loc2K (3:50:53 AM): i know
ocproto (3:50:59 AM): 1clubs enuf for what?
Loc2K (3:51:00 AM): but one club is enough to be afraid
Loc2K (3:51:03 AM): he has a redraw
ocproto (3:51:17 AM): afraid so what should i do?
Loc2K (3:51:22 AM): the fact that he could have a club
Loc2K (3:51:42 AM): is the statement: he has at least one club, which includes him having two clubs
Loc2K (3:51:52 AM): so it's sufficient that he has one club for you to worry
ocproto (3:51:53 AM): well almost 70% of his range has a redraw
Loc2K (3:51:56 AM): because he can't have two without having one
Loc2K (3:52:21 AM): yes but in most of those cases the redraw is 3.5:1
ocproto (3:52:38 AM): and?
Loc2K (3:52:59 AM): and we're not afraid of 3.5:1
Loc2K (3:53:11 AM): we're afraid of 3.5:1 plus kjc/tt
Loc2K (3:53:23 AM): bc that would be 2:1
Loc2K (3:53:25 AM): or something
ocproto (3:53:44 AM): oh u mean the specific range of (KJc/TT)
ocproto (3:54:06 AM): (KJc and 2 combos of TTc)
Loc2K (3:54:10 AM): the non-kjc/tt range is 3.5:1 underdog against you
Loc2K (3:54:25 AM): adding kjc/tt gives 2:1 against you
ocproto (3:54:31 AM): yes
Loc2K (3:54:56 AM): i think since it's impossible to know, you should be afraid of kjc/tt
ocproto (3:55:03 AM): u know what'd be sick
ocproto (3:55:09 AM): lol
Loc2K (3:55:10 AM): what
ocproto (3:55:17 AM): if he had Kclubs Jakc offsuit
ocproto (3:55:19 AM): we raise
ocproto (3:55:21 AM): he shoves
ocproto (3:55:26 AM): cuz hes got blocker to the NUTS
ocproto (3:56:08 AM): turn his hand into a semi bluff
Loc2K (3:56:33 AM): see if he shoves we have no idea where we're at
ocproto (3:56:38 AM): exactly
Loc2K (3:56:40 AM): whcih is why i like the flat
ocproto (3:57:05 AM): well ur reasoning assumes hes capable of shipping the turn on a semibluff
ocproto (3:57:20 AM): in reality live, he's not capable of it
Loc2K (3:57:27 AM): pretty much the simplest +ev decision is to flat
ocproto (3:57:43 AM): yea
Loc2K (3:57:53 AM): there are too many dimensions to the other choices
ocproto (4:00:15 AM): no
ocproto (4:00:21 AM): i think a raise is still good in this specific instance
ocproto (4:00:31 AM): hes not capable of semibluffing all in on the turn
ocproto (4:00:59 AM): we raise turn, if he ships it, we auto muck
ocproto (4:01:13 AM): he flats, got a set or straightw/1 club
ocproto (4:01:28 AM): we make a large valuebet on safe river
ocproto (4:01:51 AM): cuz compared with flatting turn, we pretty much got to flat rivers too
ocproto (4:02:04 AM): are we raising safe rivers?
ocproto (4:02:23 AM): actually we are raising safe rivers
ocproto (4:02:26 AM): if we flatted turn
Loc2K (4:02:38 AM): no we flat river
ocproto (4:02:45 AM): even safe rivers?
Loc2K (4:03:02 AM): good point
ocproto (4:03:08 AM): no i like raising safe rivers
Loc2K (4:03:10 AM): we raise bricks for value
ocproto (4:03:16 AM): value raise and fold to a ship
Loc2K (4:03:22 AM): i would do a minraise
ocproto (4:03:31 AM): depends how much he bet
Loc2K (4:03:39 AM): yeah
ocproto (4:03:44 AM): i know he puts me on AK
ocproto (4:03:46 AM): for sure
ocproto (4:04:15 AM): cuz i took a long time to make a scared flop call
ocproto (4:04:32 AM): possibly AK w/1club when i call turn
ocproto (4:05:08 AM): at most id feel hed bet $80
ocproto (4:05:13 AM): on river bricks
ocproto (4:05:26 AM): maybe 60-80
ocproto (4:06:42 AM): yeah a 2x or 2.5x raise on river brick is good
ocproto (4:11:38 AM): i have another aim buddy i got from that deuces thread sn: prplburrito
ocproto (4:11:52 AM): u mind if i share this aim thread with him?
Loc2K (4:12:16 AM): lol i've imed him before
Loc2K (4:12:24 AM): go ahead
Loc2K (4:13:51 AM): what is the rake cap at your casino
Loc2K (4:13:57 AM): $5?
ocproto (4:14:15 AM): this one is Hawaiian Gardens
ocproto (4:14:22 AM): 3.50
ocproto (4:14:28 AM): 3+0.5 jackpot
Loc2K (4:14:39 AM): wow that is dirt cheap
ocproto (4:14:42 AM): i tip a $1
Loc2K (4:14:46 AM): the casino i go to charges $5
Loc2K (4:14:48 AM): and i don't tip
ocproto (4:15:01 AM): well the bigger games its more
ocproto (4:15:05 AM): 1/3nl+
ocproto (4:15:10 AM): its 4+1
ocproto (4:15:47 AM): vegas is dirt cheap
ocproto (4:15:52 AM): 10% and $3 cap
ocproto (4:16:01 AM): cuz here any flop they take full drop
Loc2K (4:26:53 AM): http://loc.loc2k.com/ocproto.txt
Loc2K (4:28:14 AM): you'll need to change the game title to "Full Tilt Poker" in order to convert it though
Loc2K (4:28:26 AM): then you can replace it with hawaiian gardens again
ocproto (6:20:22 PM): yo
Loc2K (6:20:27 PM): yo
ocproto (6:20:59 PM): jus woke up after finishing a 20hr live session
Loc2K (6:21:05 PM): how did that go
ocproto (6:21:18 PM): i increased my networth by 20%
Loc2K (6:21:24 PM): haha nice
Loc2K (6:21:29 PM): so you won 100 bucks?
Loc2K (6:21:31 PM): lol
ocproto (6:21:36 PM): 120
Loc2K (6:21:39 PM): haha
ocproto (6:21:45 PM): -food=100 net
Loc2K (6:22:00 PM): i'm playing live 200nl tomorrow
Loc2K (6:22:08 PM): only planning on bringing ~250 though
ocproto (6:22:11 PM): how d it go last time?
Loc2K (6:22:17 PM): didn't go last time
Loc2K (6:22:22 PM): postponed
ocproto (6:22:28 PM): i bring like 500
Loc2K (6:22:29 PM): i'm planning on shortstacking
Loc2K (6:22:47 PM): probably 40, 40, 40, 130
Loc2K (6:22:50 PM): so i have 4 shots
ocproto (6:23:28 PM): did i tell u
ocproto (6:23:37 PM): im officially a 0.73 ptbb winner over 13k hands
Loc2K (6:23:44 PM): haha nice
ocproto (6:23:51 PM): +10 buyins in last 1000 hands
Loc2K (6:23:55 PM): i'm up 100 this month finally
Loc2K (6:24:00 PM): now i can move back up
ocproto (6:24:32 PM): so ru planning on doing poker for career?
Loc2K (6:24:36 PM): actually it depends on how my live session goes
Loc2K (6:24:39 PM): yes
ocproto (6:24:49 PM): u kno after i finsih my eng deg
ocproto (6:25:02 PM): im kind of tempted to go into hospital technician work
ocproto (6:25:07 PM): xray or respiratory tech
ocproto (6:25:17 PM): base bay should be like 30 or 35 /hr
ocproto (6:25:25 PM): offer flexible scheduling,
ocproto (6:25:30 PM): do poker on the side
Loc2K (6:25:50 PM): that's pretty decent
ocproto (6:26:27 PM): any shift over 8hrs is over time, holidays r like 2x pay
ocproto (6:26:36 PM): u shud check it out if ur interested
Loc2K (6:28:02 PM): working sucks
Loc2K (6:28:03 PM): haha
Loc2K (9:18:30 PM): http://www.pokerhand.org/?4125927
Loc2K (9:18:37 PM): look at the results
ocproto (9:20:44 PM): coolers
ocproto (1:55:59 AM): i got a live hand
ocproto (1:57:04 AM): 1/2nl my image is TAG, villain is typical tight passive predictable not really capable of huge bluffs
ocproto (1:57:20 AM): BB: $360 (villain)
UTG: $300
Hero:$500 is UTG +1 w/96cc
Preflop: UTG limps, hero raises to 8, BB calls, UTG calls
Flop ($22) AcQcTd
BB checks, UTG checks, hero bets 16
BB check/raises to 40, utg folds Hero calls
(I ask how much he has behind and think about it before I call)
Turn($100)AcQcTd4c
Bb bets $40,
ocproto (1:57:24 AM): ?
Loc2K (1:58:18 AM): my move is fold pf
Loc2K (1:58:48 AM): but since you made a hand
Loc2K (1:58:53 AM): flop play is fine
Loc2K (1:59:11 AM): you have to raise the turn
Loc2K (1:59:20 AM): there is no choice really
Loc2K (1:59:33 AM): i would just shove
Loc2K (1:59:41 AM): if the river comes a club, you're screwed
Loc2K (1:59:47 AM): furthermore, if it pairs you're screwed
Loc2K (2:00:28 AM): there are 8 remaining clubs and ~9 non-club pairing cards
Loc2K (2:00:47 AM): of which probably 80-90% are bad for your hand
Loc2K (2:01:57 AM): shove turn
Loc2K (2:02:04 AM): if he calls you're likely 3.5:1 favorite
Loc2K (2:06:25 AM): lemme think about stacks
Loc2K (2:06:31 AM): he contributed 88 so far
Loc2K (2:06:38 AM): 272 behind
ocproto (2:06:41 AM): yup
ocproto (2:06:46 AM): 130bbs
ocproto (2:06:55 AM): my goal is to make my flush
ocproto (2:07:10 AM): but im not sure if its strong enuf to play for stacks
ocproto (2:07:30 AM): im 100 percent sure he is not c/r with a naked flush draw
ocproto (2:07:38 AM): he might have KJcc
Loc2K (2:07:39 AM): well the c/r is not a flush
Loc2K (2:07:40 AM): for sure
Loc2K (2:07:50 AM): it's a set or two pair or a made straight
Loc2K (2:08:00 AM): you are way ahead on the turn
ocproto (2:08:00 AM): set or straight
ocproto (2:08:02 AM): not even 2 pair
ocproto (2:08:14 AM): live has extremely narrow ranges
Loc2K (2:08:54 AM): you are awkwardly deep
Loc2K (2:09:04 AM): it's shallow enough to where i would still shove
ocproto (2:09:14 AM): yeah i think i shud shove too
Loc2K (2:09:22 AM): only bc the alternatives are kind of bad
ocproto (2:09:43 AM): can we raise and fold to a shove?
Loc2K (2:09:47 AM): if he is not folding to a shove, he's not folding to a raise
ocproto (2:10:08 AM): he might if he has a set
Loc2K (2:10:08 AM): and if you raise and he flats, you have a tough choice on the river 1/3 of the time
Loc2K (2:10:29 AM): i would just get it in
Loc2K (2:10:34 AM): if he has a higher flush, fuck me
Loc2K (2:10:51 AM): the thing is, if you shove... your hand is pretty face up as a flush
ocproto (2:10:52 AM): yeah strong chance of flopped straight
ocproto (2:10:56 AM): exactly
ocproto (2:11:07 AM): honestly iw as hoping to shove the river
ocproto (2:11:13 AM): i ended up flatting turn
Loc2K (2:11:14 AM): i can see calling here being okay...
Loc2K (2:11:21 AM): because of stack depth
Loc2K (2:11:40 AM): but i still like a shove
Loc2K (2:12:00 AM): call turn and fold river is inferior to shoving and having him fold
Loc2K (2:12:09 AM): can't be too greedy and expect him to call 100% of the time
Loc2K (2:12:17 AM): just shove it in while you're ahead
ocproto (2:12:29 AM): u dont like flatting
ocproto (2:12:34 AM): and shoving a non pair no club
Loc2K (2:12:46 AM): i think flatting is okay but shoving is better
ocproto (2:12:56 AM): no i meant im shoving river
ocproto (2:12:57 AM): instead
Loc2K (2:13:06 AM): that's bad
ocproto (2:13:12 AM): cuz i put his range mostly on sets and straight
Loc2K (2:13:16 AM): i mean it's not THAT bad
ocproto (2:13:19 AM): only possible flush is KJcc
ocproto (2:13:22 AM): the nuts
Loc2K (2:13:24 AM): but 1/3 of the time a crap card comes
ocproto (2:13:35 AM): its not 1/3
Loc2K (2:13:40 AM): i would flat if it were slightly deeper
ocproto (2:13:41 AM): 1/5
ocproto (2:13:47 AM): oh wait
ocproto (2:13:52 AM): the pairing
ocproto (2:13:53 AM): ur right
ocproto (2:14:07 AM): shit
ocproto (2:14:11 AM): i didnt think about all that
ocproto (2:14:20 AM): i definitely should have shoved
Loc2K (2:14:27 AM): yeah
ocproto (2:14:31 AM): god i hate
ocproto (2:14:37 AM): missing value
Loc2K (2:14:40 AM): 50-100bb deeper and i'm flatting
ocproto (2:14:50 AM): so i flat the turn
Loc2K (2:14:59 AM): just bc when you shove the turn that deep he is never calling w/worse
ocproto (2:15:09 AM): river comes a 6 of clubs
Loc2K (2:15:24 AM): err you have the 6c
Loc2K (2:15:26 AM): make it 7c
Loc2K (2:15:27 AM): lol
ocproto (2:15:29 AM): yea
ocproto (2:15:55 AM): river ($180) he insta bets 40
ocproto (2:16:09 AM): now in previous hands where he had nut flush in multiway pot
ocproto (2:16:22 AM): he'll lead pretty small and flat call a check raise on the turn
ocproto (2:16:30 AM): to get someone behind him to call
Loc2K (2:16:30 AM): actually
ocproto (2:16:40 AM): and lead like 20 into 120 pot on river
Loc2K (2:16:46 AM): we are wrong about a club being that bad
Loc2K (2:16:57 AM): if i flat the turn i am instacalling a bet on the river that's smaller than pot
Loc2K (2:17:07 AM): the reason is if he has a set
Loc2K (2:17:12 AM): the only set that contains a club is tt
ocproto (2:17:20 AM): yea i called his bet
Loc2K (2:17:26 AM): how did that work out
ocproto (2:17:31 AM): i won
ocproto (2:17:35 AM): he had QQ
ocproto (2:17:37 AM): set
Loc2K (2:17:43 AM): yeah see
Loc2K (2:17:48 AM): every other set on that board
Loc2K (2:17:51 AM): does not have a club
ocproto (2:17:57 AM): still i was paranoid he had KJ
ocproto (2:17:59 AM): with 1 club
Loc2K (2:18:04 AM): so flatting there is not bad at all
ocproto (2:18:18 AM): we got to count combos of sets vs straights
ocproto (2:18:53 AM): he can only possibly have QQ or TT or a straight
ocproto (2:18:57 AM): to check raise
Loc2K (2:19:13 AM): well if he bets pot you only have to win 33% of the time
Loc2K (2:19:58 AM): you beat sets: aa,qq,non-club tt, 44
Loc2K (2:20:36 AM): 3+3+1+3
Loc2K (2:20:39 AM): =10
ocproto (2:21:06 AM): no Aa
ocproto (2:21:12 AM): he would reraise preflop
Loc2K (2:21:17 AM): he didn't w/qq
ocproto (2:21:25 AM): cuz we were deep i assume
Loc2K (2:21:25 AM): i put aa in range too
Loc2K (2:21:43 AM): 8 combos of kj w/one club
Loc2K (2:21:49 AM): 2 of tt with one club
ocproto (2:21:51 AM): how d u do that
ocproto (2:21:57 AM): 8 combos of KJ w/1club?
Loc2K (2:22:02 AM): 1x4 + 1x4
Loc2K (2:22:11 AM): take the king of clubs, match it with all four jacks
Loc2K (2:22:16 AM): take the jack of clubs, match it with all four kings
Loc2K (2:22:27 AM): so that's 10 combos too
Loc2K (2:22:31 AM): you win 50% of the time
Loc2K (2:22:35 AM): and you only need to win 33%
Loc2K (2:22:45 AM): so if he bets pot, you call
ocproto (2:22:47 AM): shud be 7 right?
Loc2K (2:22:55 AM): 7?
ocproto (2:22:55 AM): 7 combos of KJ w/1 club
Loc2K (2:23:02 AM): why 7
ocproto (2:23:07 AM): r u counting KJcc twice?
Loc2K (2:23:19 AM): you're right
Loc2K (2:23:20 AM): my bad
Loc2K (2:23:27 AM): good observation
ocproto (2:23:41 AM): id say also discount the AA too
ocproto (2:23:49 AM): give it 2 combos of AA
Loc2K (2:23:53 AM): so you win 10/19
Loc2K (2:24:01 AM): =52.6%
Loc2K (2:24:15 AM): it really doesn't matter, take out aa and you still > 33%
Loc2K (2:24:27 AM): 7/17 = 41%
Loc2K (2:24:31 AM): oops
Loc2K (2:24:42 AM): 7/16 = 43.8%
Loc2K (2:25:05 AM): easy call
ocproto (2:25:09 AM): yes
Loc2K (2:25:45 AM): however, if you are a little more shallow
Loc2K (2:25:49 AM): i like a turn shove
Loc2K (2:26:06 AM): he's usually not betting the river on a 4flush board unless he's insane
ocproto (2:26:07 AM): as played i completely agree
ocproto (2:26:18 AM): river is a snap call
ocproto (2:26:30 AM): especially for less than 1/2pot
Loc2K (2:26:45 AM): the 40 looks like a blocking bet
Loc2K (2:26:53 AM): but you can't raise for value obv
ocproto (2:27:07 AM): but we're also assuming villain bets river w/his entire range
ocproto (2:27:15 AM): say he 1/2pots it
ocproto (2:27:19 AM): bets $100
ocproto (2:27:22 AM): into 180 on river
ocproto (2:27:40 AM): is he really betting his entire range there?
Loc2K (2:28:10 AM): some percentage of the time he's going to turn his set into a bluff thinking you called down w/an ace
Loc2K (2:28:21 AM): you have to call
ocproto (2:31:13 AM): so whats ur conclusion on the turn play?
ocproto (2:31:15 AM): call or shove
Loc2K (2:33:32 AM): if the depth doesn't bother you, shove
Loc2K (2:33:36 AM): otherwise call is perfectly fine
Loc2K (2:33:47 AM): after analysis i lean towards calling
Loc2K (2:34:13 AM): the answer is a matter of depth
ocproto (2:36:34 AM): yea cuz if i shove turn it's 2xpot
Loc2K (2:36:57 AM): your reason for shoving the turn is not to protect your hand, though
ocproto (2:37:04 AM): no?
Loc2K (2:37:08 AM): it's so that you don't lose action on a club river
Loc2K (2:37:23 AM): remember that a club isn't THAT bad for us
Loc2K (2:37:29 AM): in that we still have the best hand a lot of hte time
ocproto (2:37:31 AM): hmm yea
Loc2K (2:37:39 AM): it is bad in the sense that we won't get any additional value out of it
ocproto (2:37:56 AM): river club turns us into a calling station
ocproto (2:38:25 AM): in addition to killing our action
ocproto (2:38:29 AM): hes still got 10 outs w/his set
Loc2K (2:38:46 AM): well yeah but on paired rivers we don't care about losing action
Loc2K (2:39:10 AM): it's deep enough to where we can let him peel with 3.5:1
ocproto (2:39:14 AM): no i meant he has set so thats more reason to shove turn
Loc2K (2:39:31 AM): well he hits 1/4.5 times
ocproto (2:39:32 AM): yea ur right
ocproto (2:39:39 AM): hes not exactly getting odds
ocproto (2:40:01 AM): same odds if he has KJ w/ a club
ocproto (2:41:44 AM): so if we'renot that afraid of rivers
ocproto (2:41:51 AM): y not make a value raise on turn
ocproto (2:42:12 AM): raise him an additional 1/2 of his stack
Loc2K (2:42:24 AM): you make an excellent point
Loc2K (2:42:28 AM): i was jus thinking about that
Loc2K (2:42:36 AM): but...
Loc2K (2:42:51 AM): you know what all three options are pretty attractive
Loc2K (2:42:58 AM): the sucky part about raising the turn
Loc2K (2:43:05 AM): is when he flats and the board pairs the river
Loc2K (2:43:08 AM): you just lost your raise
ocproto (2:43:12 AM): fuck it
Loc2K (2:43:32 AM): whereas if you flat, as you did, and he leads out of position
Loc2K (2:43:35 AM): you pick up a bet
Loc2K (2:43:42 AM): the same bet you would have picked up by raising the turn
Loc2K (2:43:44 AM): right?
ocproto (2:44:03 AM): no
ocproto (2:44:10 AM): he led river small
Loc2K (2:44:15 AM): not exactly, but it's one bet
ocproto (2:44:15 AM): well hmm
ocproto (2:44:20 AM): river clubbed
ocproto (2:44:24 AM): so he bet small as a blocker
ocproto (2:44:28 AM): what if it didn't club
ocproto (2:44:30 AM): or non pair
Loc2K (2:44:30 AM): we don't actually know if he bets small on river
Loc2K (2:44:33 AM): we do by results
Loc2K (2:44:37 AM): but he can also pot it
ocproto (2:44:44 AM): hes not capable
ocproto (2:44:52 AM): i watched him for a few hrs
ocproto (2:45:05 AM): w/nuts he bets usually less than $60 pers treet
ocproto (2:45:31 AM): my hand to him looks like a big Ace
ocproto (2:45:35 AM): he probably put me on AK
ocproto (2:45:38 AM): w/gutshot
ocproto (2:45:46 AM): no reason to bet so huge on river
Loc2K (2:47:18 AM): i think you played it perfectly given stacks
Loc2K (2:47:32 AM): for slightly shallower i like a turn shove
ocproto (2:47:34 AM): yea stacks were very awkward
ocproto (2:47:45 AM): i didnt have think it very thoroughly on the turn
ocproto (2:47:48 AM): during the game
ocproto (2:48:29 AM): i m kinda liking a turn raise to 220
ocproto (2:48:44 AM): he leads 40 i make it 180 more for him to call
Loc2K (2:48:48 AM): i wouldn't think of raising
ocproto (2:48:50 AM): hes got 110 left
ocproto (2:48:54 AM): i snap call any river
Loc2K (2:48:55 AM): unless it's shove
ocproto (2:49:07 AM): well im worried he might fold if i shove
Loc2K (2:49:13 AM): the goal here isn't to get it all in though
ocproto (2:49:17 AM): its nto?
ocproto (2:49:21 AM): well not really
ocproto (2:49:25 AM): but i want to extract value
ocproto (2:49:29 AM): i actually want him to call now
Loc2K (2:49:32 AM): no because sometimes the river comes shit
Loc2K (2:49:36 AM): and your turn plan goes to hell
ocproto (2:51:54 AM): wait
ocproto (2:51:58 AM): but u dont care if rivers bad
Loc2K (2:52:21 AM): by bad i mean paired
ocproto (2:52:27 AM): i raise full pot on turn hes got 100 behind
ocproto (2:52:42 AM): river pots 540
Loc2K (2:52:43 AM): i would need to work out the exact math
Loc2K (2:52:47 AM): for whether raising is good
ocproto (2:53:04 AM): im getting 6.4-1 odds to call on any river
Loc2K (2:53:09 AM): the ev depends on when it comes paired and you fold vs when it comes good and you get it in
ocproto (2:53:18 AM): fuck that
Loc2K (2:53:18 AM): yeah but i'm talking both streets
ocproto (2:53:23 AM): im calling any river
Loc2K (2:53:54 AM): that's bad
Loc2K (2:53:57 AM): lol
ocproto (2:54:01 AM): cuz i got more than 2/3rd of his stack in by turn
Loc2K (2:54:17 AM): if you raise enough so that you have to call any river even if it's bad
Loc2K (2:54:19 AM): then your raise was bad
ocproto (2:54:31 AM): y is that?
Loc2K (2:54:41 AM): bc your total ev depends on the choice to fold
ocproto (2:54:44 AM): no
Loc2K (2:54:46 AM): i will wokr out the math later
ocproto (2:54:51 AM): they are 2 seperate decisions
ocproto (2:54:54 AM): in a way
ocproto (2:55:05 AM): if i raise pot hes getting 2-1 odds
ocproto (2:55:10 AM): to call w/set or 1 club of kj
ocproto (2:55:18 AM): he needs 4.5-1 ot breakeven
Loc2K (2:55:20 AM): it doesn't matter what odds you give him
Loc2K (2:55:23 AM): you are raising for value
ocproto (2:55:28 AM): yes
Loc2K (2:55:31 AM): you don't care if he makes a good/bad call
ocproto (2:55:46 AM): y not?
ocproto (2:55:49 AM): yea i do
Loc2K (2:55:50 AM): it's like if you are in a tournament
Loc2K (2:55:57 AM): and the board comes axx two tone
Loc2K (2:56:01 AM): you have ak
Loc2K (2:56:07 AM): since it's two tone there's a flush draw
Loc2K (2:56:14 AM): but that doesn't mean betting half pot is wrong
ocproto (2:56:35 AM): sure long as u dont pay him off when flush hits
Loc2K (2:56:36 AM): you are betting for value
Loc2K (2:56:45 AM): exactly
Loc2K (2:56:50 AM): but you don't NEED to price him out
ocproto (2:56:59 AM): yea u do
ocproto (2:57:05 AM): u want to give him incorrect odds
Loc2K (2:57:11 AM): lol that's so wrong
ocproto (2:57:13 AM): as long as its less than 4.5-1 its good
Loc2K (2:57:22 AM): you don't need to
Loc2K (2:57:31 AM): you only want to if you want to have fold equity
ocproto (2:57:31 AM): then hes makinga profitable call
Loc2K (2:57:36 AM): but in this case you want him to call
Loc2K (2:57:46 AM): yeah but it's profitable for HIM
Loc2K (2:58:01 AM): the fact that it's profitable for him
Loc2K (2:58:08 AM): doesn't automatically mean it's not profitable for you
Loc2K (2:58:25 AM): you are the FAVORITE means you have better equity whether or not you give him correct odds
Loc2K (2:58:31 AM): that's what betting for value means
Loc2K (2:58:38 AM): you get money in while you're good
Loc2K (2:58:46 AM): the only time you want him to have incorrect odds is if you want fold equity
ocproto (2:58:48 AM): if u give correct pot odds
ocproto (2:58:52 AM): ur just bloating the pot really
Loc2K (2:59:01 AM): no, you're raising for value
ocproto (2:59:11 AM): i meant ur AK hand
Loc2K (2:59:21 AM): ever hear of small ball poker?
ocproto (2:59:32 AM): yes
ocproto (2:59:38 AM): small hand small pot
Loc2K (2:59:46 AM): seriously you should stop trying to think that you need to price people out
Loc2K (2:59:52 AM): unless it's a multiway pot
Loc2K (2:59:59 AM): that's one of the biggest leaks you can have
Loc2K (3:00:15 AM): yes there are times when the board comes pretty drawy
Loc2K (3:00:24 AM): and you're going to want to price people out
ocproto (3:00:28 AM): i know that
Loc2K (3:00:31 AM): however, if you know for sure someone has a flush draw
ocproto (3:00:33 AM): its not bout making them fold
Loc2K (3:00:37 AM): betting 1/2 pot is not -ev
ocproto (3:00:38 AM): but giving them incorrect odds
Loc2K (3:00:38 AM): for sure
Loc2K (3:00:47 AM): their odds to call does not affect your ev
Loc2K (3:00:55 AM): you are still winning x of the time if you're favorite
ocproto (3:00:58 AM): the reason 1/2pot is not -ev, is cuz u give them 3-1 odds which is less than the 4.5-1 they need
ocproto (3:01:16 AM): assuming u dont payoff
Loc2K (3:01:30 AM): in a tournament during the late stages
Loc2K (3:01:43 AM): no good player bets pot on two tone heads up
Loc2K (3:02:38 AM): if, however, you believe that he's calling 1/2 pot with similar frequency that he's calling full pot
Loc2K (3:02:43 AM): then your bet should be based on pot control
Loc2K (3:02:52 AM): if you want a big pot, you bet the pot, otherwise bet 1/2
Loc2K (3:03:21 AM): but pricing people out is only valid if you want them to fold
Loc2K (3:03:29 AM): them making a bad call is irrelevant to your ev
Loc2K (3:03:49 AM): well i shouldn't say irrelevant
ocproto (3:03:50 AM): hmm
ocproto (3:03:53 AM): i got to think about that
ocproto (3:03:57 AM): little longer
ocproto (3:04:07 AM): but my reasoning for full pot raise on turn
ocproto (3:04:11 AM): is that i think he will call it
Loc2K (3:04:21 AM): you can bet much less imo
ocproto (3:04:22 AM): instead of a shove which he might fold his set
Loc2K (3:04:46 AM): bet an amount that's big enough to shove the river when the board doesn't pair
Loc2K (3:04:50 AM): but small enough to get away when it does
ocproto (3:04:55 AM): hmm
ocproto (3:04:57 AM): good point
Loc2K (3:05:55 AM): if you leave yourself no choice but to call, your ev is inherently less than if you had a choice
ocproto (3:07:50 AM): well see this is the balance
ocproto (3:08:14 AM): if i get him to call a huge turn raise, its extremely +EV for me
ocproto (3:08:38 AM): thus even if river is shit, its a small -EV cuz the amount to bet on river is so small
Loc2K (3:08:47 AM): it may or may not be better than a shove
ocproto (3:08:51 AM): compared to a smaller turn raise
Loc2K (3:08:52 AM): i will do the math later
ocproto (3:09:08 AM): well im just talking conceptually
ocproto (3:10:29 AM): small turn raise is small +ev, and now on river stacks are still big enuf to fold or shove for value
Loc2K (3:11:09 AM): this hand is a good exercise
ocproto (3:11:20 AM): what do u think of my reasonign i just wrote?
ocproto (3:11:36 AM): im still unsure
Loc2K (3:11:43 AM): the thing is, any raise that is called is +ev
Loc2K (3:11:50 AM): since you are ahead, it serves as a value raise
Loc2K (3:11:57 AM): by definition, you are winning more times than you are losing
ocproto (3:12:06 AM): yet also we got to plan the river too
ocproto (3:12:10 AM): plan for the river
Loc2K (3:12:10 AM): the real matter is how much +ev compared to flat/shove
ocproto (3:12:23 AM): well i thot there's 3 options
ocproto (3:12:34 AM): flat turn/ shove turn/ raise turn
Loc2K (3:12:34 AM): also the fact that you're deep matters in the variance aspect
ocproto (3:12:48 AM): raise turn is also how much too
Loc2K (3:13:42 AM): well how much is pretty obvious
Loc2K (3:13:50 AM): pot is 140
Loc2K (3:13:54 AM): he has 272 left
Loc2K (3:14:09 AM): you prob want river shove to be 3/4 pot
Loc2K (3:15:12 AM): so (312-x)/(140+x) = 3/4
Loc2K (3:15:49 AM): 312-x = 105 + 0.75x
Loc2K (3:16:05 AM): 207 = 1.75x
Loc2K (3:16:15 AM): x = 118
Loc2K (3:17:01 AM): so you make it 118, the pot is 140+118 = 258
Loc2K (3:17:13 AM): he has 312-118 = 194 left behind
Loc2K (3:17:22 AM): perfect
Loc2K (3:18:05 AM): of course, at the table you're just gonna estimate
Loc2K (3:20:06 AM): 118 actually looks decent too, about 3x
ocproto (3:21:48 AM): i got big diff in answer
ocproto (3:22:03 AM): assume stacks on turn are 270 for simplification
Loc2K (3:22:03 AM): lol math error
Loc2K (3:22:09 AM): answer is pretty simple
Loc2K (3:22:13 AM): look at stacks
Loc2K (3:22:26 AM): pick 3x, do quick calc for stacks after that
Loc2K (3:22:30 AM): adjust from there
ocproto (3:22:49 AM): (270-x)/(180+2x)=3/4
ocproto (3:22:58 AM): solve for x i get 54
ocproto (3:23:11 AM): so add that to the turn call i get 94 for raise
ocproto (3:23:24 AM): wait its not that big
ocproto (3:23:28 AM): i was looking at the 54
Loc2K (3:23:31 AM): your first term is wrong
Loc2K (3:23:50 AM): one sec lemme think
ocproto (3:23:54 AM): wait
ocproto (3:24:00 AM): it is wrong
ocproto (3:24:25 AM): exact answer using (272-x)/(180+2x)=3/4; x=54.8 and add that to turn call is 94.8
ocproto (3:24:35 AM): turn raise is 94.8 to get 3/4pot shove on river
ocproto (3:24:44 AM): 94.8 total
Loc2K (3:25:07 AM): (312-x)/(100+2x)=3/4
Loc2K (3:25:11 AM): is the correct equation
Loc2K (3:25:19 AM): he has 312 before putting in the 40
ocproto (3:25:34 AM): shit ur right
Loc2K (3:26:55 AM): 94.8 is the answer
ocproto (3:27:19 AM): yea im right
ocproto (3:27:21 AM): lol
Loc2K (3:27:42 AM): (312-x)/(100+2x)=3/4
312-x=75+1.5x
237=2.5x
x=94.8
ocproto (3:28:06 AM): god thats such a weak raise
ocproto (3:28:14 AM): hell snap call that w/a set
Loc2K (3:28:18 AM): doesn't matter
Loc2K (3:28:28 AM): (1) it sets up a river shove when the board doesn't pair
Loc2K (3:28:36 AM): (2) it induces a reraise all-in
ocproto (3:28:37 AM): ahhh
ocproto (3:28:46 AM): u want to get ur money in w/100% equity
ocproto (3:28:49 AM): on the river
ocproto (3:29:09 AM): instead of 70 or 80 % equity on turn
Loc2K (3:29:20 AM): bad logic
ocproto (3:29:23 AM): no?
Loc2K (3:29:32 AM): river only comes good 34/44 of the time
Loc2K (3:29:58 AM): so your total equity is still 77.3% times what you win when all the money goes in on the river
Loc2K (3:30:28 AM): the times it comes bad you lose your raise, 94.8
ocproto (3:30:56 AM): no
ocproto (3:31:00 AM): river there is no equity
ocproto (3:31:09 AM): assuming we make perfect folds and shoves
ocproto (3:31:27 AM): we wait for non club non pair
ocproto (3:31:32 AM): we're 100% to get it in
Loc2K (3:31:59 AM): so your ev is 0.773*412 - 0.227*94.8
Loc2K (3:32:16 AM): no that's your ev IF THE BOARD DOESN'T PAIR
Loc2K (3:32:29 AM): your ev FOR RAISING on the turn is that equation
Loc2K (3:33:27 AM): so your ev for your turn decision is $296.96, with the assumption that he always stacks off on the river
Loc2K (3:33:43 AM): if he only stacks off a certain percentage, there's more math
Loc2K (3:33:44 AM): lol
Loc2K (3:34:19 AM): let's compare that to if you shove and he calls
Loc2K (3:34:55 AM): you risk 312 to win 412
Loc2K (3:35:26 AM): your ev is worse than the above always
Loc2K (3:35:32 AM): since 312 > 94.8
Loc2K (3:35:48 AM): this is, again, with the assumption that all money goes in on river
Loc2K (3:36:23 AM): clearly raise > shove
Loc2K (3:36:57 AM): ev for flatting is small because we flat and then we flat again
Loc2K (3:37:05 AM): but the variance is lower
Loc2K (3:37:33 AM): i'm not sure if shove or flat is better here and i don't care
Loc2K (3:37:39 AM): bc clearly raise is ahead of both of them by miles
Loc2K (3:38:02 AM): however, i still go for flat whenever stacks are deeper
Loc2K (3:38:32 AM): the real key to this hand is realizing that the river doesn't come ugly enough
Loc2K (3:38:37 AM): that is, a club doesn't do shit
Loc2K (3:40:20 AM): i think our analysis for raising is optimistic though
Loc2K (3:40:28 AM): i'm not convinced he ships it if the river comes a club
Loc2K (3:40:45 AM): the fact that he ships it some of the time is enough
Loc2K (3:40:49 AM): but our ev is still over estimated
ocproto (3:41:01 AM): im still kind of behind on the naalyssi
ocproto (3:41:24 AM): "so your ev is 0.773*412 - 0.227*94.8" shouldn t the 412 be 452
Loc2K (3:41:44 AM): 312 behind plus 100 in the pot
Loc2K (3:41:50 AM): 312 includes the 40
ocproto (3:41:53 AM): yea ur right
ocproto (3:41:54 AM): i got it
Loc2K (3:42:45 AM): all three options are +ev though
Loc2K (3:42:58 AM): the ev optimal one is raising, the variance optimal one is flatting
Loc2K (3:43:31 AM): more importantly, shoving gives your hand away, so i don't think we can do that
Loc2K (3:43:48 AM): raising kind of does too
Loc2K (3:44:05 AM): though i think he rarely folds to a minraise
Loc2K (3:44:12 AM): he can't fold
ocproto (3:44:47 AM): i just did the EV for shoving
ocproto (3:45:03 AM): .773*412 - .227*312 = 247
ocproto (3:45:11 AM): not that far off from 296 no?
Loc2K (3:45:17 AM): not at all
Loc2K (3:45:34 AM): that's why this is an easy spot to play correctly
Loc2K (3:45:39 AM): you can't mess up unless you fold
ocproto (3:45:42 AM): true
Loc2K (3:46:18 AM): i would say raise/shove are about the same ev
Loc2K (3:46:25 AM): given sometimes he's getting away from his hand on the river
ocproto (3:46:26 AM): plus like u said ev is overestimated on the river
ocproto (3:46:30 AM): yea
Loc2K (3:46:38 AM): the shove gives away your hand though
ocproto (3:46:41 AM): cuz he wont always call shoves on perfect rivers
Loc2K (3:46:41 AM): so raising is superior
ocproto (3:46:54 AM): cuz hes more likely to put more money in on turn than river
Loc2K (3:47:02 AM): i'm pretty sure both raising and shoving are superior to flatting
ocproto (3:47:10 AM): lol
ocproto (3:47:14 AM): we just go back and forth
Loc2K (3:47:19 AM): even though flatting is not bad
ocproto (3:47:25 AM): others are better
Loc2K (3:47:27 AM): no, well, flatting is still a good play
Loc2K (3:47:40 AM): btu the ev is clearly smaller than raise/shove
Loc2K (3:48:03 AM): flatting is a valid play if you are paranoid he has kjc/tt
Loc2K (3:48:11 AM): it's low variance
Loc2K (3:48:15 AM): you will still win the pot a lot of the time
Loc2K (3:48:48 AM): in effect, it's the option with the smallest reverse-implied odds
ocproto (3:48:55 AM): at the time, i couldn't figure out if i shud raise
ocproto (3:49:01 AM): and what wud i do if he shoves
ocproto (3:49:13 AM): the turn
Loc2K (3:49:14 AM): that's another problem
Loc2K (3:49:19 AM): if you raise and he shoves
Loc2K (3:49:23 AM): you ahve a tough choice
ocproto (3:49:32 AM): thats why i flatted
ocproto (3:49:55 AM): i wasn't fricking sure
Loc2K (3:49:59 AM): the choice to raise/shove depends heavily on your read of kjc/tt
ocproto (3:50:09 AM): yea i wasn't sure which one it was
Loc2K (3:50:17 AM): in that case your flat is perfect
ocproto (3:50:22 AM): specifically its KJclub club i was worried
ocproto (3:50:35 AM): the nuts
Loc2K (3:50:36 AM): well one club is enough
ocproto (3:50:49 AM): no i meant on the turn
Loc2K (3:50:53 AM): i know
ocproto (3:50:59 AM): 1clubs enuf for what?
Loc2K (3:51:00 AM): but one club is enough to be afraid
Loc2K (3:51:03 AM): he has a redraw
ocproto (3:51:17 AM): afraid so what should i do?
Loc2K (3:51:22 AM): the fact that he could have a club
Loc2K (3:51:42 AM): is the statement: he has at least one club, which includes him having two clubs
Loc2K (3:51:52 AM): so it's sufficient that he has one club for you to worry
ocproto (3:51:53 AM): well almost 70% of his range has a redraw
Loc2K (3:51:56 AM): because he can't have two without having one
Loc2K (3:52:21 AM): yes but in most of those cases the redraw is 3.5:1
ocproto (3:52:38 AM): and?
Loc2K (3:52:59 AM): and we're not afraid of 3.5:1
Loc2K (3:53:11 AM): we're afraid of 3.5:1 plus kjc/tt
Loc2K (3:53:23 AM): bc that would be 2:1
Loc2K (3:53:25 AM): or something
ocproto (3:53:44 AM): oh u mean the specific range of (KJc/TT)
ocproto (3:54:06 AM): (KJc and 2 combos of TTc)
Loc2K (3:54:10 AM): the non-kjc/tt range is 3.5:1 underdog against you
Loc2K (3:54:25 AM): adding kjc/tt gives 2:1 against you
ocproto (3:54:31 AM): yes
Loc2K (3:54:56 AM): i think since it's impossible to know, you should be afraid of kjc/tt
ocproto (3:55:03 AM): u know what'd be sick
ocproto (3:55:09 AM): lol
Loc2K (3:55:10 AM): what
ocproto (3:55:17 AM): if he had Kclubs Jakc offsuit
ocproto (3:55:19 AM): we raise
ocproto (3:55:21 AM): he shoves
ocproto (3:55:26 AM): cuz hes got blocker to the NUTS
ocproto (3:56:08 AM): turn his hand into a semi bluff
Loc2K (3:56:33 AM): see if he shoves we have no idea where we're at
ocproto (3:56:38 AM): exactly
Loc2K (3:56:40 AM): whcih is why i like the flat
ocproto (3:57:05 AM): well ur reasoning assumes hes capable of shipping the turn on a semibluff
ocproto (3:57:20 AM): in reality live, he's not capable of it
Loc2K (3:57:27 AM): pretty much the simplest +ev decision is to flat
ocproto (3:57:43 AM): yea
Loc2K (3:57:53 AM): there are too many dimensions to the other choices
ocproto (4:00:15 AM): no
ocproto (4:00:21 AM): i think a raise is still good in this specific instance
ocproto (4:00:31 AM): hes not capable of semibluffing all in on the turn
ocproto (4:00:59 AM): we raise turn, if he ships it, we auto muck
ocproto (4:01:13 AM): he flats, got a set or straightw/1 club
ocproto (4:01:28 AM): we make a large valuebet on safe river
ocproto (4:01:51 AM): cuz compared with flatting turn, we pretty much got to flat rivers too
ocproto (4:02:04 AM): are we raising safe rivers?
ocproto (4:02:23 AM): actually we are raising safe rivers
ocproto (4:02:26 AM): if we flatted turn
Loc2K (4:02:38 AM): no we flat river
ocproto (4:02:45 AM): even safe rivers?
Loc2K (4:03:02 AM): good point
ocproto (4:03:08 AM): no i like raising safe rivers
Loc2K (4:03:10 AM): we raise bricks for value
ocproto (4:03:16 AM): value raise and fold to a ship
Loc2K (4:03:22 AM): i would do a minraise
ocproto (4:03:31 AM): depends how much he bet
Loc2K (4:03:39 AM): yeah
ocproto (4:03:44 AM): i know he puts me on AK
ocproto (4:03:46 AM): for sure
ocproto (4:04:15 AM): cuz i took a long time to make a scared flop call
ocproto (4:04:32 AM): possibly AK w/1club when i call turn
ocproto (4:05:08 AM): at most id feel hed bet $80
ocproto (4:05:13 AM): on river bricks
ocproto (4:05:26 AM): maybe 60-80
ocproto (4:06:42 AM): yeah a 2x or 2.5x raise on river brick is good
ocproto (4:11:38 AM): i have another aim buddy i got from that deuces thread sn: prplburrito
ocproto (4:11:52 AM): u mind if i share this aim thread with him?
Loc2K (4:12:16 AM): lol i've imed him before
Loc2K (4:12:24 AM): go ahead
Loc2K (4:13:51 AM): what is the rake cap at your casino
Loc2K (4:13:57 AM): $5?
ocproto (4:14:15 AM): this one is Hawaiian Gardens
ocproto (4:14:22 AM): 3.50
ocproto (4:14:28 AM): 3+0.5 jackpot
Loc2K (4:14:39 AM): wow that is dirt cheap
ocproto (4:14:42 AM): i tip a $1
Loc2K (4:14:46 AM): the casino i go to charges $5
Loc2K (4:14:48 AM): and i don't tip
ocproto (4:15:01 AM): well the bigger games its more
ocproto (4:15:05 AM): 1/3nl+
ocproto (4:15:10 AM): its 4+1
ocproto (4:15:47 AM): vegas is dirt cheap
ocproto (4:15:52 AM): 10% and $3 cap
ocproto (4:16:01 AM): cuz here any flop they take full drop
Loc2K (4:26:53 AM): http://loc.loc2k.com/ocproto.txt
Loc2K (4:28:14 AM): you'll need to change the game title to "Full Tilt Poker" in order to convert it though
Loc2K (4:28:26 AM): then you can replace it with hawaiian gardens again
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)